8 Dorf Auf Radar Rd · Wilmington, VT 05363

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 530 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition $75/sqft · 63% below area $150/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Delightful, affordable! Be right in the heart of ski country with access to hiking, boating, fishing and biking! This tidy 2 bedroom home has a 10x16 storage shed for your gear! Big enough for a weekend of fun but small enough to keep the costs reasonable. This is better than renting, and always available when you are! This is an exciting find! The property can only be a vacation/second home only.

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $827 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.8% vs local median 2.5% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#57 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.78%
• DSCR: 5.22
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,492
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -62.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $56,894
• Equity at exit: $17,170

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.8%
• Equity multiple: 12.62×
• Total profit: $129,863
• Equity at exit: $25,876

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05363

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $827

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $39,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    listed $50,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Delightful, affordable! Be right in the heart of ski country with access to hiking, boating, fishing and biking! This tidy 2 bedroom home has a 10x16 storage shed for your gear! Big enough for a weekend of fun but small enough to keep the costs reasonable. This is better than renting, and always available when you are! This is an exciting find! The property can only be a vacation/second home only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $10,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,407
• After-tax cash flow: $7,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to modernize the kitchen and bathroom. It's located in a desirable area with access to outdoor activities, making it an attractive investment for both buyers and renters.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor kitchen appliances — dated and possibly worn
• Minor bathroom vanity — dated and possibly worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both update bathroom vanity — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls would improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen appliances · dated and possibly worn	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom vanity · dated and possibly worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom vanity — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls would improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #12863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,008

Population outlook (Windham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,432 people
• By 2030: 38,472 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 33,954 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 29,774 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 22,351 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 15,961 · -60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.7) · D 69.6% · R 26.9% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: 48.1pp · 2024: 42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.7 2020: D+47.3 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+49.2 2008: D+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Current HPI: 362.8468
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $50,000 PrimeMLS