None · Jacksonville, FL 32256

$291,294

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,557 sqft · Townhouse

Built 2026 Good condition 2,154 sqft lot $124/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. Under Construction. Welcome to the CHAPMAN townhome, a charming 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home designed for comfortable everyday living. The inviting kitchen features quartz countertops, 42-inch white cabinets, and a functional layout overlooking the spacious great room, creating an easy flow for gathering and entertaining. Tile flooring adds style and durability throughout the main living areas. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat, with THREE additional bedrooms nearby for convenience. A 1-car garage provides parking and extra storage. This well-designed townhome offers a great blend of comfort, function, and low-maintenance living. Photos are represen

Key facts

• $124 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $124; Sidewalks in the community; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s); Security lights
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water available; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Property attached; Faces south
• Construction: Fiber cement and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s); Security lights; Cleared lot; Zero lot line; City street frontage; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary suite on second level; Two additional bedrooms on second level with built-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Split bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $291k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mandarin Oaks Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 988 students, 32% FRL); Twin Lakes Academy Middle School (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 1,076 students, 44% FRL); Atlantic Coast High School (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 2,537 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 520 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,451 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.58% appreciation · 0.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,663
• Equity at exit: $62,318

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-68,956
• Equity at exit: $58,844

Cash invested: $81,562 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32256

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 520
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,528
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,369/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,705

Max offer price $259,213

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-121	+0% $-222	+5% $-322	+10% $-423
Rent	-10% $-413	-5% $-317	+0% $-222	+5% $-126	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-148	base $-222	+0.5pp $-297	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,824
• Closing costs: $8,739
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7596 Fawn Lake Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1814	$3,600	$1.98	25d	1	0.37mi
10598 Cordgrass Ln Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1131	$2,305	$2.04	3d	29	0.74mi
10654 Towns Way Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1338	$2,430	$1.82	9d	10	0.78mi
7703 Erinwood Ct E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,800	$1.60	6d	1	0.80mi
7633 Plumwood Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,650	$1.09	6d	1	0.95mi
7635 Timberlin Park Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1146	$1,965	$1.71	4d	10	1.11mi
7701 Timberlin Park Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1128	$2,050	$1.82	23d	3	1.16mi
7651 Paradise Island Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,814	$1.63	4d	58	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $124 · $1,488/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   days on marketlisting id $291,294 Pending
3. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $291,294 Pending 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $291,294 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $291,294 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $291,294 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $291,294 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-05-23
   listed $291,294 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,317
• − Property taxes: −$4,369
• − Insurance: −$1,456
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$8,474
• Taxable loss: −$7,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $-821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhome is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,192
• Household income: $73,570
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2706.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 18% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Current HPI: 216.5115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $291,294 realMLS