Us-30 · Richfield Springs, NY 13361

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Other · 26 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Remodeled double wide on foundation with unfinished basement. Home is heated/cooled with a Lenox mini split system that was installed in 2021. Home does need a few windows replaced either do to degasing or cracks. Kitchen needs to be renovated. All appliances are under 6 years old but it& apos; s small and one wall had a door way filled in with drywall and never finished.

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#328 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Van Hornesville-Owen D Young Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #567 of 755 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $53,556
• Equity at exit: $84,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $147,042
• Equity at exit: $158,569

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13361

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $230	+0% $187	+5% $144	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $134	+0% $187	+5% $239	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $219	base $187	+0.5pp $154	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $2,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate renovations, including a kitchen renovation and window replacement, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major windows — The listing remarks mention that windows need to be replaced due to degassing or cracks.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — A renovated kitchen can significantly increase both the resale and rental value of a property.
• Both Window replacement — Replacing damaged or old windows can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
windows · The listing remarks mention that windows need to be replaced due to degassing or cracks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — A renovated kitchen can significantly increase both the resale and rental value of a property. ↑
• Both Window replacement — Replacing damaged or old windows can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Hornesville-Owen D Young Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622200
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $48,116
• Composite: 40.66/100
• National rank: #7620
• State rank: #567 of 755 in NY

Livability — Richfield Springs

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #5444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,667
• Population (ZIP): 666

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 7% Polish 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.74%
• Current HPI: 326.5403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com