613 Wilton Ave · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$119,900

0 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,170 sqft · Other public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1924 4,530 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

incredible opportunity for investment. well kept 3 bedroom and 1.5 bath home with a heat pump and beautiful wood floors. Columns separate the living room and dining room. Great central city location. won't last long!!!

Key facts

• 4,530 sq ft lot
• Built 1924
• Listed 19 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a ?-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($709/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: E.C. Glass High (math 42% / reading 84%, grade B-, #223 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 1,325 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lynchburg City Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $120k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,370 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-17,700
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-18,616
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $101	+0% $59	+5% $18	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $15	+0% $59	+5% $104	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $90	base $59	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1114	$995	$0.89	44d	1	0.22mi
318 Wadsworth St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	943	$995	$1.06	21d	1	0.29mi
905 Centerdale St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	14d	1	0.29mi
317 Grove St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	0.30mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	44d	1	0.33mi
106 Yeardley Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1060	$895	$0.84	21d	1	0.39mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	44d	1	0.42mi
2107 Park Ave Unit 4 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$785	$0.98	14d	1	0.44mi
803 Mansfield Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	21d	1	0.44mi
2021 Rose Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	836	$1,095	$1.31	21d	1	0.52mi
2245 Landover Pl Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$870	$0.94	44d	2	0.66mi
209 Munford St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,497	$1.05	45d	1	0.67mi
1625 Shaffer St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	44d	1	0.68mi
2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	44d	1	0.74mi
2336 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1042	$995	$0.95	14d	1	0.77mi
540 Monticello Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	21d	1	0.80mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$707	$0.63	21d	6	0.81mi
1705 1st St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	21d	1	0.82mi
1106 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1018	$875	$0.86	21d	1	0.91mi
1219 Pierce St Unit 1221 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1168	$825	$0.71	14d	1	0.92mi
2121 Langhorne Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	21d	1	0.92mi
2121 Langhorne Rd Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	983	$1,475	$1.50	44d	1	0.92mi
1810 Broadway St #112 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,600	$1.32	44d	1	0.93mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	44d	1	0.94mi
2121 Langhorne Rd Unit 1103756SF 1BR/1BA Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	756	$1,225	$1.62	21d	1	0.97mi
2121 Langhorne Rd Unit 11041092SF 2BR/2BA Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,495	$1.37	21d	1	0.97mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	21d	1	1.09mi
4067 Fort Ave Unit 3 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$995	$1.05	21d	1	1.09mi
1218 Shirley Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	742	$950	$1.28	21d	1	1.19mi
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	14d	1	1.19mi
1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	21d	1	1.19mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	44d	1	1.20mi
317 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	44d	1	1.23mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	21d	1	1.23mi
900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$895	$0.81	14d	1	1.24mi
512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,295	$0.97	21d	1	1.24mi
1320 Saint Cloud Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	45d	1	1.25mi
4300 Tremont St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,200	$1.07	44d	1	1.25mi
601 Jackson St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1138	$1,595	$1.40	44d	1	1.27mi
2205 Easley Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $119,900 Active
3. 2015-12-22
   soldstatus $39,000 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   incredible opportunity for investment. well kept 3 bedroom and 1.5 bath home with a heat pump and beautiful wood floors. Columns separate the living room and dining room. Great central city location. won't last long!!!

4. 2015-12-07
   soldstatus $36,000
5. 2015-10-21
   listed $39,900 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   incredible opportunity for investment. well kept 3 bedroom and 1.5 bath home with a heat pump and beautiful wood floors. Columns separate the living room and dining room. Great central city location. won't last long!!!

6. 2005-02-25
   soldstatus $10,000
7. 1979-05-15
   soldstatus $27,000
8. 1978-12-15
   soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,275
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$306
• After-tax cash flow: $1,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+605.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $119,900 LMLS
• 2015-12-22 Sold (MLS) $39,000 LMLS
• 2015-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-21 Listed $39,900 LMLS
• 2005-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1979-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 1978-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records