8370 Carl Dean #206 · Ferry Pass, FL 32514

$124,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Condo public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1983 $305/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very popular Northeast Pensacola location off Olive Road and Johnson. Upstairs condo. Cool floorplan, living room leads to balcony. Formal dining area off living room peaks through to kitchen. Kitchen is equipped with fridge, dishwasher, stove, garbage disposal and a pantry. Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups. Master bedroom suite fits a large bed and has a huge walk in closet that 2 people can easily share. Guest bedroom and bathroom. NO pets per HOA, but they pay your water, sewer, and trash as well as maintain the lawn for you. Convenient to hospitals, UWF, I-10 and halfway between Pensacola NAS and Whiting Field NAS.

Key facts

• Formal dining area
• Indoor laundry
• Upstairs condo

Tags

• NORTHEAST PENSACOLA LOCATION
• UPSTAIRS CONDO
• LIVING ROOM LEADS TO BALCONY
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• KITCHEN EQUIPPED WITH FRIDGE
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.4% in Ferry Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#664 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 221 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 9508% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-17,908
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-20,904
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32514

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,171/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$305
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $122	+0% $86	+5% $51	+10% $16
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $26	+0% $86	+5% $146	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $118	base $86	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8707 N Davis Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,983	$1.95	14d	38	0.63mi
3205 E Olive Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,540	$1.71	14d	8	0.67mi
8990 N Davis Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1019	$1,565	$1.54	14d	20	0.74mi
7650 Kipling St Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	24d	1	0.77mi
7650 Kipling St Unit 1 Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	24d	1	0.77mi
8917 N Davis Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,600	$1.65	24d	1	0.84mi
2345 Langston St Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,250	$1.55	22d	1	0.84mi
9165 Loomis St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	24d	1	0.93mi
7322 Mangum Dr Unit 7322 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	24d	1	0.98mi
1613 Governors Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,600	$1.25	24d	1	1.05mi
2220 Gloria Cir Pensacola, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1123	$1,600	$1.42	14d	1	1.06mi
1600 Governors Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,681	$1.66	14d	25	1.09mi
9004 Governors Place Ct Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,450	$1.16	14d	1	1.09mi
9184 Arand Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,575	$1.17	22d	1	1.10mi
7840 Lilac Ln Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,690	$1.65	14d	16	1.12mi
1500 E Johnson Ave #128 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,275	$1.18	24d	1	1.13mi
9307 Mabel St Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	915	$1,300	$1.42	24d	1	1.15mi
8108 Ridgefield Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	14d	1	1.16mi
1857 Atwood Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	892	$1,399	$1.57	24d	1	1.17mi
8390 Country Walk Dr Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	1.20mi
7101 Joy St Unit I5 Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,950	$1.65	24d	1	1.29mi
4051 E Olive Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,425	$1.67	24d	37	1.33mi
9100 Baldridge Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,711	$1.57	14d	13	1.38mi
1843 San Dollar Cir Unit 1843 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,400	$1.52	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $305 · $3,660/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-04-10
   historical $1,300
5. 2026-02-13
   listed $1,300
6. 2026-01-15
   listed $124,900 Active 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   Very popular Northeast Pensacola location off Olive Road and Johnson. Upstairs condo. Cool floorplan, living room leads to balcony. Formal dining area off living room peaks through to kitchen. Kitchen is equipped with fridge, dishwasher, stove, garbage disposal and a pantry. Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups. Master bedroom suite fits a large bed and has a huge walk in closet that 2 people can easily share. Guest bedroom and bathroom. NO pets per HOA, but they pay your water, sewer, and trash as well as maintain the lawn for you. Convenient to hospitals, UWF, I-10 and halfway between Pensacola NAS and Whiting Field NAS.

7. 2025-07-12
   historical $1,250
8. 2025-07-12
   historical
9. 2025-07-12
   listed $1,250
10. 2025-06-24
    price $127,500
11. 2025-02-20
    listed $128,500 Active
12. 2024-05-18
    historical
13. 2024-04-24
    status Active
14. 2024-04-02
    status Pending
15. 2023-12-04
    price $119,900
16. 2023-10-18
    price $129,900
17. 2023-06-28
    listed $134,900 Active
18. 2019-08-16
    soldstatus $275,000
19. 2010-01-28
    soldstatus $35,000
20. 2009-11-23
    listed $42,900
21. 2009-11-14
    historical
22. 2009-10-28
    listed $48,900
23. 2005-11-16
    soldstatus $88,400
24. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus $88,400
25. 2005-09-09
    listed $89,900
26. 2000-10-12
    soldstatus $15,500
27. 2000-10-09
    soldstatus $37,500
28. 2000-10-06
    soldstatus $15,500
29. 2000-07-28
    listed $27,000
30. 1985-05-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,171
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − HOA: −$3,660
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$827
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$198
• After-tax cash flow: $1,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ferry Pass

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #664
• US rank: #13543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferry Pass, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 43,072
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,447
• Household income: $66,644
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1962.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.99%
• Current HPI: 266.7408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.76%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.4% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Rental Removed $1,300 PARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed for Rent $1,300 PARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $124,900 PARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Rental Removed $1,250 PARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listed for Rent $1,250 PARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $127,500 PARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $128,500 PARMLS
• 2024-05-18 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Pending — PARMLS
• 2023-12-04 Price Changed $119,900 PARMLS
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $129,900 PARMLS
• 2023-06-28 Listed $134,900 PARMLS
• 2019-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-28 Sold (MLS) $35,000 PARMLS
• 2009-11-23 Listed $42,900 PARMLS
• 2009-11-14 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2009-10-28 Listed $48,900 PARMLS
• 2005-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $88,400 Public Records
• 2005-11-14 Sold (MLS) $88,400 PARMLS
• 2005-09-09 Listed $89,900 PARMLS
• 2000-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 2000-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2000-10-06 Sold (MLS) $15,500 PARMLS
• 2000-07-28 Listed $27,000 PARMLS
• 1985-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,171 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.