2719 46th St E · Ellenton, FL 34221

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2000 10,855 sqft lot Est $534k · 44% under · waterfront $86/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Glorious home looking for the right family

Key facts

• Lakefront lot
• Formal dining room
• Living room

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LOT
• QUIET COMMUNITY
• FAMILY ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; association name listed and approval required; Quarterly association fee of $260 (approximately $86.67/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (available & connected); Public sewer; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building area about 2,976 square feet
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.25 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-336/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $212k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,296 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $533,875
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2819 47th St E	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-6%)	3mo	$392,777	$193	79
3827 Mossy Limb Ct	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,068 (-4%)	0mo	$460,000	$222	61
3844 Mossy Limb Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,068 (-4%)	1mo	$375,000	$181	59
2235 50th Street Cir E	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,398 (+11%)	6mo	$365,000	$152	55
3821 Silver Strand Trl	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+5%)	6mo	$389,000	$172	53
5506 Skylight Way	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,081 (-4%)	1mo	$382,479	$184	52
3825 Silver Strand Trl	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,045 (-5%)	6mo	$409,000	$200	51
4710 35th Ave E	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (-10%)	6mo	$355,000	$183	50
5643 Skylight Way 5643 Skylight Way	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,323 (+8%)	2mo	$409,000	$176	49
5647 Skylight Way	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,007 (-7%)	1mo	$387,959	$193	47
2271 50th Street Cir E	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,414 (+12%)	4mo	$370,000	$153	46
2267 50th Street Cir E	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,416 (+12%)	6mo	$360,000	$149	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-58,301
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-83,654
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,935/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$86
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,778

Max offer price $294,958

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $57	+0% $-28	+5% $-113	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-136	+0% $-28	+5% $80	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $48	base $-28	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3616 Mossy Limb Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2068	$2,500	$1.21	13d	1	0.55mi
3911 Willow Walk Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1978	$2,636	$1.33	5d	1	0.99mi
5514 Night Owl Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,650	$1.51	17d	1	1.01mi
4042 Wayfarer Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,600	$1.42	17d	1	1.06mi
5185 Rocky Coast Pl Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,450	$1.60	16d	1	1.09mi
5520 Flagstone Trl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2248	$3,200	$1.42	25d	1	1.09mi
5141 Rocky Coast Pl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,650	$1.17	5d	1	1.17mi
4916 Willow Breeze Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,245	$1.12	3d	1	1.27mi
5029 Rocky Coast Pl Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,400	$1.62	12d	1	1.28mi
4648 Lindever Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,289	$1.53	4d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $86 · $1,032/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $300,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 669-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $320,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,935 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,935 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,935
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,633
• − Management: −$2,633
• − HOA: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,282
• After-tax cash flow: $946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-30 Listed $212,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-28 Sold (MLS) $212,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-30 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-23 Listed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-05 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $6,229,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,935 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.