3459 U.s. 9 #18 · Claverack-Red Mills, NY 12534

$82,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2001 Average condition $69/sqft · 34% below area Est $124k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy, low-maintenance living in the desirable Community at Bells Pond, a 55+ park offering a peaceful and well-kept setting. This well-maintained 2001 Champion mobile home (74x16) has had just one previous owner and features a spacious open floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living. The home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing both functionality and privacy for guests or additional space needs. Enjoy morning coffee or evening relaxation on the covered porch, a perfect extension of the living space. The property also includes a newer shed, thoughtfully built by the previous owner, ideal for storage or hobbies. This home has been cared for over the years and

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Newer shed
• Built 2001

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• NEWER SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured house (mobile home); Single wide
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Shed(s); Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.1% vs local median 3.9% in Claverack-Red Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $79,540 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.74%
• DSCR: 4.15
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,505
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: -33.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3459 Route 9 #82	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-3%)	5mo	$82,000	$71	86
3459 Route 9 #92	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,184 (0%)	16mo	$35,000	$30	80
3459 Route 9 #58	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-3%)	18mo	$70,000	$61	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $143,752
• Equity at exit: $73,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.1%
• Equity multiple: 17.87×
• Total profit: $387,428
• Equity at exit: $159,308

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12534

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $1,354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $717

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,410	-5% $1,382	+0% $1,354	+5% $1,325	+10% $1,297
Rent	-10% $1,162	-5% $1,258	+0% $1,354	+5% $1,450	+10% $1,546
Rate	-1.0pp $1,395	-0.5pp $1,374	base $1,354	+0.5pp $1,332	+1.0pp $1,311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $82,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $82,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $90,000 Active 812-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,333
• − Management: −$2,333
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $15,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,812
• After-tax cash flow: $12,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both replace linoleum flooring with hardwood or tile — new flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would brighten the interior and make the home more appealing

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace linoleum flooring with hardwood or tile — new flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would brighten the interior and make the home more appealing ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Claverack-Red Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 17,176 people
• City population: 198
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,176
• Household income: $72,741
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1083.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 490.0412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $90,000 HVCRMLS