22 Cozumel Ln · River Park, FL 34952

$43,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition Est $37k · 16% over ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in-ready home in 55+ community, comfort, convenience, and peace of mind. Recently updated for enhanced safety and security, includes essential appliances refrigerator, stove, microwave, washer, and dryer. Notable features include metal skirting with added tie-downs, newly screened porch corners, a hot water tank replaced in early 2025. The air conditioning system under 10 years old with a transferable warranty, ceiling fans are installed in every room. This furnished offers vinyl flooring from 2020,new kitchen faucet, fresh exterior paint in 2025,roof sealed and coated the same year. Additional upgrades handicap-accessible bars, new water shut-off valve, smoke detectors, seamless gutte

Key facts

• Newly screened porch
• Recently updated
• Metal skirting

Tags

• RECENTLY UPDATED
• ESSENTIAL APPLIANCES
• METAL SKIRTING
• NEWLY SCREENED PORCH
• HOT WATER TANK REPLACED
• AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Resale condition; Built as single-story (entry level living area)
• Exterior features: Entry-level living area; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.5% vs local median 6.3% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $301 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,195 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 118.43%
• DSCR: 6.27
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $37,440
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Yolanda Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+9%)	5mo	$39,000	$30	68
45 Mediterranean Blvd W	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+3%)	24mo	$38,000	$32	65
7 Reforma Ln	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-2%)	20mo	$37,000	$32	62
23 San Pablo Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+3%)	13mo	$37,000	$31	57
1 Quintana Roo Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-14%)	12mo	$18,000	$18	48
560 Natalie Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+7%)	18mo	$162,800	$130	40
541 Natalie Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-12%)	22mo	$85,000	$82	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $67,495
• Equity at exit: $6,486

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.25×
• Total profit: $149,263
• Equity at exit: $3,761

Cash invested: $12,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $1,202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $381

Max offer price $43,500

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,232	-5% $1,217	+0% $1,202	+5% $1,187	+10% $1,172
Rent	-10% $1,052	-5% $1,127	+0% $1,202	+5% $1,277	+10% $1,352
Rate	-1.0pp $1,224	-0.5pp $1,213	base $1,202	+0.5pp $1,191	+1.0pp $1,179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,875
• Closing costs: $1,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 E Arbor Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$2,550	$2.65	14d	1	0.63mi
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,878	$1.84	14d	16	0.66mi
13 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,375	$1.72	24d	1	0.89mi
14 Lake Vista Trl #101 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,200	$1.88	24d	1	0.93mi
326 Shady Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1030	$2,250	$2.18	24d	1	0.94mi
8 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,500	$1.88	24d	1	0.95mi
730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1386	$10,000	$7.22	24d	1	0.95mi
11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.96mi
4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	22d	1	1.00mi
26 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,500	$1.28	24d	1	1.02mi
28 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.03mi
30 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	24d	1	1.04mi
2 Lake Vista Trl #107 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	24d	1	1.05mi
1 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,800	$1.54	24d	1	1.08mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	1.16mi
336 SE Tranquilla Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	1412	$2,700	$1.91	14d	1	1.25mi
650 SE Evergreen Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$2,095	$2.15	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,500 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $43,500 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $43,500 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,500 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $43,500 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,500 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $43,500 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $43,500 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $43,500 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $43,500 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $43,500 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $43,500 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,500 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $43,500 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,500 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $43,500 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $43,500 Active
18. 2026-05-04
    historical
19. 2026-04-15
    price $44,800
20. 2026-02-13
    price $45,000
21. 2026-01-09
    price $48,000
22. 2025-12-05
    price $55,000
23. 2025-11-05
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,437
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$1,265
• Taxable income: $14,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,504
• After-tax cash flow: $10,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home in a 55+ community has recently undergone cosmetic updates, including new paint, flooring, and appliances, making it a good investment for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated design
• Minor kitchen appliances — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms will attract more buyers
• Rental install new flooring in bathrooms — new flooring will make the bathrooms more appealing to renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen appliances · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms will attract more buyers ↑
• Rental install new flooring in bathrooms — new flooring will make the bathrooms more appealing to renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: River Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-27.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $43,500 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $44,800 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $45,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $48,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $55,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $60,000 Beaches MLS