651 Trevino St · Alice, TX 78332

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 194 Days on market

Built 1982 4,848 sqft lot $97/sqft · 10% above area Est $78k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully refreshed 2-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in a peaceful neighborhood. This move-in ready gem boasts fresh interior and exterior paint, brand new flooring throughout, and updated paneling, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your new home!

Key facts

• 4,848 sq ft lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 194 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($804/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.1% in Alice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#558 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Alice ISD (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #799 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Adams Middle (math 10% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,029 students, 84% FRL); Alice H S (math 9% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 1,290 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Jim Wells County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jim Wells County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.04%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,607
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 9.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1310 San Felipe St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+3%)	20mo	$75,000	$83	47
209 Prospect St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (+9%)	13mo	$29,900	$31	38
100 Cactus Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	968 (+11%)	20mo	$49,000	$51	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-9,394
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,230
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78332

• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,329/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $942

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $91	+0% $67	+5% $43	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $26	+0% $67	+5% $108	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $89	base $67	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2555 S Cameron St Alice, TX	2.0	1.0	869	$868	$1.00	25d	1	1.31mi
516 E 6th St Unit B Alice, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$1,200	$1.30	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 174 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 173 DOM
17. 2025-12-09
    listed $85,000 Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully refreshed 2-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in a peaceful neighborhood. This move-in ready gem boasts fresh interior and exterior paint, brand new flooring throughout, and updated paneling, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your new home!

18. 2025-10-08
    historical $900
19. 2025-07-04
    listed $900
20. 2025-03-24
    status Active
21. 2025-03-24
    status Pending
22. 2025-03-14
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2024-12-17
    listed $85,000 Active
24. 2024-12-13
    historical $1,000
25. 2024-09-13
    listed $1,000
26. 2024-08-01
    price $75,000
27. 2024-06-20
    price $80,000
28. 2024-05-21
    listed $90,000 Active
29. 2023-08-05
    listed $55,000 Active
30. 2023-05-22
    price $55,000
31. 2023-03-08
    price $62,500
32. 2023-01-17
    listed $65,000 Active
33. 2022-12-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$226/yr (+$19/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,329
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$986
• − Management: −$986
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$112
• After-tax cash flow: $916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alice ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807800
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,747
• Composite: 14.63/100
• National rank: #9407
• State rank: #799 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alice

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #558
• US rank: #10742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alice, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,281

Population outlook (Jim Wells County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,325 people
• By 2030: 44,156 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 45,790 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 47,455 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 51,800 · +19.6%
• By 2100: 52,006 · +20.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% White 14% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Jim Wells

• 2024 margin: R (+15.5) · D 42.0% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -15.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.5 2020: R+9.8 2016: D+10.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.86%
• Current HPI: 77.6253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Listed $85,000 CBMLS
• 2025-10-08 Rental Removed $900 CBMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listed for Rent $900 CBMLS
• 2025-03-24 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2025-03-24 Pending — CBMLS
• 2025-03-14 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2024-12-17 Listed $85,000 CBMLS
• 2024-12-13 Rental Removed $1,000 CBMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed for Rent $1,000 CBMLS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $75,000 CBMLS
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $80,000 CBMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $90,000 CBMLS
• 2023-08-05 Listed $55,000 CBMLS
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $55,000 CBMLS
• 2023-03-08 Price Changed $62,500 CBMLS
• 2023-01-17 Listed $65,000 CBMLS
• 2022-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,329 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.