808 Co Rte 4 · Fort Covington, NY 12937

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Other public records · 210 Days on market

Built 1996 1.37 ac lot $97/sqft · 22% below area Est $109k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 1.37 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 210 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($986 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Salmon River Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #545 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.13%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,651
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -21.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $58,528
• Equity at exit: $74,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.76×
• Total profit: $160,828
• Equity at exit: $158,927

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12937

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $707

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 192 DOM
15. 2025-11-21
    status Active
16. 2025-11-19
    historical
17. 2025-11-18
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,182 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$947
• − Management: −$947
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$326
• After-tax cash flow: $2,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salmon River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625500
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,710
• Composite: 32.24/100
• National rank: #5770
• State rank: #545 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Covington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 1,340

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Native American 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Italian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.69%
• Current HPI: 273.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2025-11-19 Delisted — ACVMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $85,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.