8955 Breinig Run Cir · Upper Macungie, PA 18031

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $65k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Green Acres located in the Parkland School District. Nestled in a cul-de-sac is a 3 bed, 1.5 bath home. Updated kitchen and new flooring throughout the living, dining and kitchen areas. Forced air, oil heat. This is low maintenance living at its best. Lot rent includes water, sewer, trash, road maintenance and access to community areas like the pool and park. Close to all major roadways, shopping and restaurants.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl flooring
• Front porch deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• VINYL FLOORING
• FRONT PORCH DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; Located in Green Acres Mobile Home Park
• Financial info: Land lease present with a monthly land lease payment; Monthly land lease payment: $1,107; Ground rent exists and is paid annually
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Common grounds; Outdoor pool; Tot lots/playground; HOA/association covers sewer, water, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; Driveway parking for 2 vehicles; Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric hot water; Community water; Community septic tank; Electric service for appliances and cooling
• Home design: Manufactured (modular) double-wide home; Estimated year built; Model: Ramada; Make: Skyline; Above-grade finished living area (estimated)
• Construction: Modular/Manufactured construction; Shed structure
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Awnings; Shed; Corner lot/unit; Community septic tank; Community water

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: 90% efficient forced air heating; Oil and other fuel heating options; Wall-mounted electric cooling unit
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Ceiling fan(s); Combination kitchen and dining area; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer on main floor; Electric dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $538 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $75k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.15%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,472
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1016 Spruce Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$59,000	$56	92
8754 Breinig Run Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,031 (-2%)	3mo	$80,000	$78	87
1007 Redwood Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	8mo	$58,000	$55	76
8722 Evergreen Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+2%)	9mo	$57,000	$53	75
8902 Breinig Run Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	6mo	$75,000	$65	71
8726 Breinig Run Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	5mo	$77,000	$67	70
8711 Breinig Run Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	15mo	$46,500	$44	68
8820 Breinig Run Cir	0.10mi	3/1.0	924 (-12%)	3mo	$25,000	$27	68
8792 Turkey Ridge Rd	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	1mo	$70,000	$73	67
8719 Turkey Ridge Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	6mo	$69,000	$62	66
8711 Turkey Ridge Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	19mo	$74,000	$70	64
8914 Breinig Run Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	13mo	$53,000	$44	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.72% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $68,060
• Equity at exit: $19,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.32×
• Total profit: $153,713
• Equity at exit: $20,964

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18031

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $1,179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8749 Breinig Run Cir Breinigsville, PA	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,695	$1.65	2d	1	0.17mi
1208 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,450	$1.63	43d	1	0.75mi
1273 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,550	$1.70	43d	1	0.79mi
1145 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	2d	1	0.80mi
1175 Susan Cir Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	43d	1	0.82mi
1177 Susan Cir Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	43d	1	0.82mi
8328 Fair Way Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	23d	1	0.86mi
8395 Saylor Ct Breinigsville, PA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,100	$1.99	14d	1	0.98mi
1447 Artisan Ct Breinigsville, PA	2.0	1.5	1056	$2,150	$2.04	14d	1	0.98mi
9751 Newtown Rd Unit B Breinigsville, PA	2.0	1.0	1288	$2,300	$1.79	2d	1	1.20mi
1055 Cetronia Rd Breinigsville, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,355	$2.15	2d	8	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $75,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $80,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $13,821
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,317
• After-tax cash flow: $10,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkland SD
• NCES district ID: 4218510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $77,976
• Composite: 57.44/100
• National rank: #1074
• State rank: #40 of 539 in PA

Livability — Upper Macungie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Breinigsville, PA
• County: Lehigh County · 333,019 people
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 11,570
• Household income: $113,625
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 52.0

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 17% Asian 12% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, United Kingdom, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.72%
• Current HPI: 267.8218
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-18 Sold (MLS) $30,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-18 Sold (MLS) $30,000 GLVRMLS
• 2023-10-16 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2023-10-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-09-26 Price Changed $35,000 GLVRMLS
• 2023-09-20 Price Changed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-03 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2023-08-03 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-06 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2023-07-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-09 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2023-05-09 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-09 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2023-05-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-08 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2023-05-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-18 Price Changed $59,999 GLVRMLS
• 2023-04-18 Price Changed $59,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-04 Listed $63,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-04 Listed $63,500 GLVRMLS
• 2020-06-19 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2020-06-10 Listed $32,000 GLVRMLS