EAGLE RIVER 76 Brookside Village Plan · Lime Ridge, PA 18603

$54,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 385 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well cared for three bedroom, 2 bathroom home in a desirable community. Call today to see this home!

Key facts

• Listed 384 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#848 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Columbia SD (suburban): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #51 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.56%
• DSCR: 3.78
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $33,582
• Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $84,027
• Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18603

• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $700	-5% $682	+0% $663	+5% $644	+10% $626
Rent	-10% $547	-5% $605	+0% $663	+5% $721	+10% $779
Rate	-1.0pp $690	-0.5pp $677	base $663	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $635

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $54,000 Active 385 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,000 Active 384 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,000 Active 383 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,000 Active 382 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,000 Active 381 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,000 Active 379 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,000 Active 378 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,000 Active 375 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,000 Active 374 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,000 Active 373 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,000 Active 369 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,000 Active 368 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,000 Active 367 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,000 Active 366 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,000 Active 365 DOM
16. 2025-05-30
    listed $54,000 Active 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Well cared for three bedroom, 2 bathroom home in a desirable community. Call today to see this home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $7,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,834
• After-tax cash flow: $6,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Significant investments in the roof, exterior, flooring, and systems are necessary to make it move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of potential water damage
• Major exterior siding — Worn and possibly damaged
• Major flooring — Worn and possibly damaged
• Major interior walls — Paint appears faded and possibly peeling
• Major systems — Likely outdated and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new roof — New roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale exterior siding repair — Fresh siding would enhance curb appeal and value
• Resale new flooring — New flooring would improve the home's condition and value
• Resale paint job — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value
• Both new HVAC system — New HVAC would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of potential water damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Worn and possibly damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and possibly damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Paint appears faded and possibly peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · Likely outdated and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new roof — New roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale exterior siding repair — Fresh siding would enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale new flooring — New flooring would improve the home's condition and value ↑
• Resale paint job — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both new HVAC system — New HVAC would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Columbia SD
• NCES district ID: 4205370
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,278
• Composite: 55.99/100
• National rank: #1195
• State rank: #51 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lime Ridge

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #848
• US rank: #8903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,985

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,170 people
• By 2030: 64,054 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 61,131 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 57,526 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 50,259 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 44,756 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.0) · D 34.0% · R 65.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -4.5pp · 2024: -31.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.0 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+12.4 2008: R+4.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.40%
• Current HPI: 211.5643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-30 Listed $54,000 Zillow