9630 SE 165th Ln · The Villages, FL 34491

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,925 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1998 7,500 sqft lot $132/sqft · 9% below area Est $352k · 28% under $260/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designed with multi-generational living in mind, this 55+ community home in Hilltop Estates offers the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and convenience—ideal for anyone who want to stay close to family while maintaining their own space—all while you own your land with NO CDD and NO Bond. Perfectly positioned just minutes from The Villages and close to the Veterans Clinic, medical centers, and everyday shopping, this location offers both accessibility and a peaceful retreat. This rare 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home spans an impressive 2,429 square feet with a bright, open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Set high on a hill, the property captures a sense of privacy along with tranquil surroundings and gentle breezes. A charming front porch creates a warm first impression—ideal for morning coffee or welcoming guests. Inside, the spacious kitchen serves as the heart of the home, offering ample room to cook, gather, and entertain with ease. A dedicated formal dining room provides the perfect setting for holidays and special occasions. The primary suite is designed with comfort in mind, featuring a walk-in closet and a handicap-accessible bathroom for added functionality. A thoughtfully designed mother-in-law area offers flexibility for guests or multigenerational living. In addition, this home features a dedicated office/den space, along with a versatile bonus area—perfect for working from home, hobbies, a man cave, or creative studio. Outdoors, enjoy a beautifully landscaped, low-maintenance yard, along with a workshop shed ideal for storage or projects. An RV carport provides covered protection for your travel vehicle, making it easy to embrace life on the go. Residents of Hilltop Estates enjoy access to community amenities, including a resort-style pool and available RV storage, enhancing both convenience and leisure. With its generous space, flexible layout, prime location, and welcoming 55+ community setting, this home offers the total package for comfortable Florida living.

Key facts

• Hilltop estates
• Resort style pool
• Workshop shed

Tags

• HILLTOP ESTATES
• DEDICATED OFFICE DEN SPACE
• WORKSHOP SHED
• RV CARPORT
• RESORT STYLE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 712 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,383 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,985
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -27.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-60,763
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-77,419
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,913/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,568

Max offer price $200,383

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-236	+0% $-309	+5% $-381	+10% $-453
Rent	-10% $-481	-5% $-395	+0% $-309	+5% $-223	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-180	-0.5pp $-244	base $-309	+0.5pp $-375	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	22d	1	0.31mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	22d	1	0.50mi
16475 SE 89th Ter Summerfield, FL	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	15d	1	0.63mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	22d	1	0.67mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	22d	1	0.67mi
9393 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	4.0	3.0	1990	$2,500	$1.26	22d	1	0.76mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	15d	1	0.79mi
17522 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1884	$1,875	$1.00	22d	1	0.97mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	22d	1	1.13mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	22d	1	1.24mi
8721 SE 157th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,650	$1.33	22d	1	1.27mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	1.35mi
8364 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	1.42mi
8198 SE 164th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	1.5	1965	$2,650	$1.35	22d	1	1.42mi
8352 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	15d	1	1.43mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	22d	2	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $254,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $259,900 2063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2063 chars)

    Designed with multi-generational living in mind, this 55+ community home in Hilltop Estates offers the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and convenience—ideal for anyone who want to stay close to family while maintaining their own space—all while you own your land with NO CDD and NO Bond. Perfectly positioned just minutes from The Villages and close to the Veterans Clinic, medical centers, and everyday shopping, this location offers both accessibility and a peaceful retreat. This rare 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home spans an impressive 2,429 square feet with a bright, open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Set high on a hill, the property captures a sense of privacy along with tranquil surroundings and gentle breezes. A charming front porch creates a warm first impression—ideal for morning coffee or welcoming guests. Inside, the spacious kitchen serves as the heart of the home, offering ample room to cook, gather, and entertain with ease. A dedicated formal dining room provides the perfect setting for holidays and special occasions. The primary suite is designed with comfort in mind, featuring a walk-in closet and a handicap-accessible bathroom for added functionality. A thoughtfully designed mother-in-law area offers flexibility for guests or multigenerational living. In addition, this home features a dedicated office/den space, along with a versatile bonus area—perfect for working from home, hobbies, a man cave, or creative studio. Outdoors, enjoy a beautifully landscaped, low-maintenance yard, along with a workshop shed ideal for storage or projects. An RV carport provides covered protection for your travel vehicle, making it easy to embrace life on the go. Residents of Hilltop Estates enjoy access to community amenities, including a resort-style pool and available RV storage, enhancing both convenience and leisure. With its generous space, flexible layout, prime location, and welcoming 55+ community setting, this home offers the total package for comfortable Florida living.

19. 2026-04-15
    listed $272,000 Active 2063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2063 chars)

    Designed with multi-generational living in mind, this 55+ community home in Hilltop Estates offers the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and convenience—ideal for anyone who want to stay close to family while maintaining their own space—all while you own your land with NO CDD and NO Bond. Perfectly positioned just minutes from The Villages and close to the Veterans Clinic, medical centers, and everyday shopping, this location offers both accessibility and a peaceful retreat. This rare 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home spans an impressive 2,429 square feet with a bright, open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Set high on a hill, the property captures a sense of privacy along with tranquil surroundings and gentle breezes. A charming front porch creates a warm first impression—ideal for morning coffee or welcoming guests. Inside, the spacious kitchen serves as the heart of the home, offering ample room to cook, gather, and entertain with ease. A dedicated formal dining room provides the perfect setting for holidays and special occasions. The primary suite is designed with comfort in mind, featuring a walk-in closet and a handicap-accessible bathroom for added functionality. A thoughtfully designed mother-in-law area offers flexibility for guests or multigenerational living. In addition, this home features a dedicated office/den space, along with a versatile bonus area—perfect for working from home, hobbies, a man cave, or creative studio. Outdoors, enjoy a beautifully landscaped, low-maintenance yard, along with a workshop shed ideal for storage or projects. An RV carport provides covered protection for your travel vehicle, making it easy to embrace life on the go. Residents of Hilltop Estates enjoy access to community amenities, including a resort-style pool and available RV storage, enhancing both convenience and leisure. With its generous space, flexible layout, prime location, and welcoming 55+ community setting, this home offers the total package for comfortable Florida living.

20. 2026-04-10
    historical
21. 2026-01-07
    price $274,000
22. 2025-11-14
    price $276,900
23. 2025-10-08
    price $279,900
24. 2025-09-12
    listed $285,000 Active
25. 2025-05-31
    historical
26. 2025-04-25
    price $279,900
27. 2025-03-14
    price $284,500
28. 2025-02-23
    listed $294,500 Active
29. 2024-06-11
    soldstatus $265,000
30. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus $265,000 Closed
31. 2024-03-25
    status Pending
32. 2024-01-24
    price $265,000
33. 2023-10-15
    listed $275,000 Active
34. 2021-08-13
    soldstatus $225,000
35. 2021-08-10
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed
36. 2021-07-15
    status Pending
37. 2021-05-28
    listed $225,000 Active
38. 2021-03-31
    historical
39. 2020-11-13
    listed $219,000 Active
40. 2020-11-10
    historical
41. 2020-08-18
    listed $229,000
42. 2019-03-11
    soldstatus $161,000
43. 2019-03-06
    soldstatus $161,000
44. 2019-03-06
    soldstatus $161,000
45. 2018-11-17
    listed $161,000
46. 2018-11-17
    listed $161,000
47. 2016-03-23
    historical
48. 2016-03-23
    historical
49. 2016-01-05
    listed $154,900
50. 2015-12-03
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,913 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,913 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$3,913
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$8,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+159.9% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $272,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $274,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $276,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $284,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-23 Listed $294,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-15 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-10 Sold (MLS) $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-28 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-13 Listed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-18 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $161,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-06 Sold (MLS) $161,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-06 Sold (MLS) $161,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-17 Listed $161,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-17 Listed $161,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-05 Listed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-23 Listed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-23 Listed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,913 · +63.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.