The Madison Plan · Lytle, TX 78052

$326,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,498 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing The Madison, a two-story home featured in Saddle Ridge Estates in Lytle, TX. This floor plan offers 2 classic exteriors, 2-car garage, and a full yard landscaping and irrigation package, ensuring that your home looks its best every single day. Inside this 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home, you'll find 2489 square feet of open-concept living. A long entryway leads to a blended dining area, gourmet kitchen, and living room, perfect for entertaining and every day living. Your kitchen includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinetry, and a grand kitchen island, complete with a roomy single basin sink and quartz breakfast bar. The corner pantry is spacious an

Key facts

• Grand kitchen island
• Gourmet kitchen
• Corner pantry

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRAND KITCHEN ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• VERSATILE LOFT
• PRIVATE MAIN BEDROOM SUITE
• ATTRACTIVE ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 20002 Wyatt Earp Way, Lytle TX 78052; New construction plan inventory
• Financial info: List price $326,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (The Madison); Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2498

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (The Madison)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $326k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle J H (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 398 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $264,000 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $88,354
• Equity at exit: $210,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $267,093
• Equity at exit: $385,525

Cash invested: $91,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$408 /mo · $4,890/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,852

Max offer price $301,790

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $58	-5% $-55	+0% $-167	+5% $-280	+10% $-393
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-272	+0% $-167	+5% $-63	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-84	base $-167	+0.5pp $-252	+1.0pp $-338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,500
• Closing costs: $9,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$2,640	$1.69	0d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $326,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $326,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $326,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $326,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $326,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $326,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $326,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $326,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $326,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-10
    listed $326,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,261
• − Property taxes: −$4,890
• − Insurance: −$1,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$9,484
• Taxable loss: −$7,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,837
• After-tax cash flow: $-171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Madison Plan is a well-maintained, move-in-ready two-story home with a good condition score. It offers a blend of modern amenities and a spacious layout, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances are a selling point for potential buyers.
• Resale Window treatments — Window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances are a selling point for potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Window treatments — Window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B