The Madison Plan · Lytle, TX 78052

$326,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,498 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing The Madison, a two-story home featured in Saddle Ridge Estates in Lytle, TX. This floor plan offers 2 classic exteriors, 2-car garage, and a full yard landscaping and irrigation package, ensuring that your home looks its best every single day. Inside this 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home, you'll find 2489 square feet of open-concept living. A long entryway leads to a blended dining area, gourmet kitchen, and living room, perfect for entertaining and every day living. Your kitchen includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinetry, and a grand kitchen island, complete with a roomy single basin sink and quartz breakfast bar.

Key facts

• Grand kitchen island
• Gourmet kitchen
• Corner pantry

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRAND KITCHEN ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• VERSATILE LOFT
• PRIVATE MAIN BEDROOM SUITE
• ATTRACTIVE ENSUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $326,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $357,567.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $326k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Lytle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle J H (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 398 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,640/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $264,000 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,567
• List price: $326,000
• Delta: -8.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14510 Open Range Rd	0.13mi	5/6.5	2,498 (0%)	0mo	$333,895	$134	80
109 W Medium Mdw	1.02mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,502 (+0%)	4mo	$580,000	$232	54
132 Medium Mdw	1.02mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,375 (-5%)	5mo	$499,000	$210	48
16036 Stratford Cv	0.48mi	5/2.5	2,118 (-15%)	6mo	$370,900	$175	45
16020 Stratford Cv	0.52mi	5/2.5	2,118 (-15%)	6mo	$370,900	$175	44
137 W Medium Mdw	0.96mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,259 (-10%)	1mo	$470,499	$208	43
128 W Tree Farm	1.10mi	5/4.0	2,720 (+9%)	4mo	$589,900	$217	43
132 West Short Meadow Dr	0.91mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,335 (-6%)	9mo	$472,900	$203	41
16001 Cabana Dr	0.56mi	5/2.5	2,118 (-15%)	11mo	$366,900	$173	38
16021 Delgado Hls	0.62mi	5/2.5	2,118 (-15%)	11mo	$360,900	$170	35
16173 Farmer	0.75mi	5/2.5	2,118 (-15%)	5mo	$370,900	$175	34
165 E Short Meadow Dr	0.83mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,045 (-18%)	2mo	$465,000	$227	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $84,043
• Equity at exit: $230,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $265,175
• Equity at exit: $422,856

Cash invested: $100,119 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $310,000 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 106 d
• This list price: 69% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,875
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$447 /mo · $5,364/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,128

Max offer price $301,790

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-262	+0% $-385	+5% $-509	+10% $-633
Rent	-10% $-594	-5% $-490	+0% $-385	+5% $-281	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-295	base $-385	+0.5pp $-478	+1.0pp $-572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,392
• Closing costs: $10,727
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$2,640	$1.69	0d	1	0.69mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 20002 Wyatt Earp Way, Lytle TX 78052New construction plan inventory
• Financial info: List price $326,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (The Madison)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2498

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (The Madison)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $326,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $326,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $326,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $326,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $326,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $326,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $326,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $326,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $326,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $326,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $326,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $326,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $326,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $326,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $326,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $326,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $326,000 Active 80 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $326,000 Active 79 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $326,000 Active 78 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $326,000 Active 77 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $326,000 Active 76 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $326,000 Active 75 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $326,000 Active 74 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $326,000 Active 73 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $326,000 Active 72 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $326,000 Active 71 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $326,000 Active 70 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $326,000 Active 69 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $326,000 Active 68 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $326,000 Active 67 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $326,000 Active 66 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $326,000 Active 65 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $326,000 Active 64 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $326,000 Active 63 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $326,000 Active 62 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $326,000 Active 61 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $326,000 Active 60 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $326,000 Active 59 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $326,000 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $326,000 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $326,000 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $326,000 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $326,000 Active 52 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $326,000 Active 51 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $326,000 Active 50 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $326,000 Active 48 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $326,000 Active 47 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $326,000 Active 45 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $326,000 Active 44 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $326,000 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,029
• − Property taxes: −$5,364
• − Insurance: −$1,788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$10,402
• Taxable loss: −$10,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,633
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,490–$37,470 screening

The Madison Plan is a well-maintained, move-in-ready two-story home with a good condition score. It offers a blend of modern amenities and a spacious layout, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances are a selling point for potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Window treatments — Window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lytle Primary School Middle Lytle J H F TX #1,122/1,662 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Lytle H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• County: Atascosa · 57,233 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221
• Household income: $69,018
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 20002 Wyatt Earp Way, Lytle TX 78052New construction plan inventory
• Financial info: List price $326,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (The Madison)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2498

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (The Madison)