19370 Magnolia Ave · Citronelle, AL 36522

$78,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 291 Days on market

Built 1983 0.37 ac lot $51/sqft · 52% below area Est $142k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER!!! THIS 1906 4 BD RM 1 BTH 2 STORY SITTING ON JUST OVER 16000 SQ FT LOT .36 ACRE JUST 1 BLOCK FROM CITRONELLE HIGH SCHOOL WOULD BE A GREAT FIXER UPPER OR INVESTMENT! RENOVATIONS WERE STARTED AND NEVER FINISHED.SELLER HAS A LOT OF MATERIALS ALREADY PURCHASED SUCH AS SEVERAL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS,6-8 INTERIOR DOOR UNITS,30+- SHEETS OF 3/8 PLYWOOD, COOL SEAL FOR ROOF (NO CURRENT LEAKS) AND A NEW 10X20 GRACELAND SHED WITH LOFT, TRUSS'S TO BUILD POLE BARN OR CARPORT,THAT CAN BE PURCHASED TOGETHER FOR ASKING PRICE OF $78,000 FENCED IN BACK YARD, CITY SEWER, CITY WATER.THIS WONT LAST LONG SO SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING TODAY

Key facts

• City water
• Fenced in back yard
• Renovations started

Tags

• INVESTMENT
• RENOVATIONS STARTED
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• CITY SEWER
• CITY WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 4.8% in Citronelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#254 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcdavidjones Elementary School (math 20% / reading 45%, grade F, #329 of 627 statewide, top 53%, 836 students, 69% FRL); Lott Middle School (math 9% / reading 44%, grade F, #150 of 257 statewide, top 60%, 429 students, 82% FRL); Citronelle High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 719 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.33%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,837
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: -45.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19230 1st St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-13%)	2mo	$208,000	$155	62
8220 Realco Ln	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,433 (-7%)	4mo	$159,900	$112	54
8450 Craft Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	10mo	$235,000	$155	51
8350 Grove Park	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,680 (+9%)	9mo	$191,500	$114	48
7735 Union St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+12%)	9mo	$140,000	$81	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $93,839
• Equity at exit: $70,269

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.80×
• Total profit: $235,881
• Equity at exit: $151,537

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36522

• Home prices YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $188/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $579

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $851	-5% $829	+0% $807	+5% $785	+10% $763
Rent	-10% $680	-5% $744	+0% $807	+5% $870	+10% $933
Rate	-1.0pp $846	-0.5pp $827	base $807	+0.5pp $787	+1.0pp $766

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8685 W Williams St Citronelle, AL	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,600	$0.93	15d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $78,000 Active 291 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 283 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,000 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $78,000 Active 274 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 273 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 272 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 271 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 270 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $78,000 Active 269 DOM
18. 2025-09-03
    listed $78,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    FIXER UPPER!!! THIS 1906 4 BD RM 1 BTH 2 STORY SITTING ON JUST OVER 16000 SQ FT LOT .36 ACRE JUST 1 BLOCK FROM CITRONELLE HIGH SCHOOL WOULD BE A GREAT FIXER UPPER OR INVESTMENT! RENOVATIONS WERE STARTED AND NEVER FINISHED.SELLER HAS A LOT OF MATERIALS ALREADY PURCHASED SUCH AS SEVERAL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS,6-8 INTERIOR DOOR UNITS,30+- SHEETS OF 3/8 PLYWOOD, COOL SEAL FOR ROOF (NO CURRENT LEAKS) AND A NEW 10X20 GRACELAND SHED WITH LOFT, TRUSS'S TO BUILD POLE BARN OR CARPORT,THAT CAN BE PURCHASED TOGETHER FOR ASKING PRICE OF $78,000 FENCED IN BACK YARD, CITY SEWER, CITY WATER.THIS WONT LAST LONG SO SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING TODAY

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $188 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $320 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$132/yr (+$11/mo · 70.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$188
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $8,912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,139
• After-tax cash flow: $7,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Citronelle

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #17928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citronelle, AL
• City population: 6,892
• Population (ZIP): 6,892

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 18% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.55%
• Current HPI: 260.4914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-03 Listed $78,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $188 · -58.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.