3199 Castle Dr · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$340,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1984 $276/sqft · 20% below area Est $439k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy beach retreat offers peekaboo views of the beach from the spacious deck. Make this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom house your own! Inside enjoy the open-concept living and kitchen area with split floor plan that has been very well maintained by the full time resident. Home is fully handicapped accessible! Outside you'll find the cargo lift to make your life easy, 2 staircases that lead to the deck, 2 car garage has plenty of room for storage, and the yard is fully fenced! Furniture will remain, excluding a few personal items.

Key facts

• Cargo lift
• Spacious deck
• Open-concept living

Tags

• PEEKABOO VIEWS
• SPACIOUS DECK
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• CARGO LIFT
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,901 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,037
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -22.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3089 Patty	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+4%)	2mo	$359,000	$280	81
3287 Hidden Gold	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-4%)	6mo	$349,900	$297	75
3185 Sea Castle Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,344 (+9%)	7mo	$280,000	$208	74
984 26 Stingaree Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (-1%)	7mo	$349,000	$287	65
984 S Stingaree Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-1%)	7mo	$349,000	$287	65
3415 Sand Dollar Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+5%)	2mo	$329,000	$254	62
3096 Diane	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+7%)	22mo	$349,000	$264	61
2917 Tropicana Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-9%)	6mo	$475,000	$426	50
969 Bahama Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+14%)	10mo	$395,000	$283	34
3450 Hannas Reef	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+14%)	14mo	$550,000	$391	34
978 Biscayne Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-12%)	18mo	$315,000	$292	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-84,624
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-110,519
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,548/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,763

Max offer price $256,901

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-278	-5% $-374	+0% $-470	+5% $-567	+10% $-663
Rent	-10% $-721	-5% $-596	+0% $-470	+5% $-345	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-384	base $-470	+0.5pp $-559	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3229 Castle Dr Unit 1353849P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$3,035	$2.14	7d	1	0.15mi
1714 Texas 87 Unit 1252629P Port Bolivar, TX	3.0	2.0	1345	$4,393	$3.27	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $340,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $340,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-02-23
    listed $350,000 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    This cozy beach retreat offers peekaboo views of the beach from the spacious deck. Make this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom house your own! Inside enjoy the open-concept living and kitchen area with split floor plan that has been very well maintained by the full time resident. Home is fully handicapped accessible! Outside you'll find the cargo lift to make your life easy, 2 staircases that lead to the deck, 2 car garage has plenty of room for storage, and the yard is fully fenced! Furniture will remain, excluding a few personal items.

16. 2014-07-23
    historical
17. 2014-06-23
    listed $259,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,548 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,222 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,674/yr (+$139/mo · 36.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$4,548
• − Insurance: −$9,728
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,041
• − Management: −$3,041
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$11,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,708
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+35.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2014-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-06-23 Listed $259,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,548 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.