Gardenia Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$341,740

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,318 sqft · SingleFamily · 963 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 963 days

🏗️ New construction. The $341,740 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,685.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $342k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 963 days — a 12% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,731 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 963 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,685
• List price: $341,740
• Delta: 4.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5727 Daylight Cv	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,412 (+4%)	3mo	$310,000	$129	89
32107 Morning Luster Ct	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,402 (+4%)	1mo	$369,990	$154	83
5711 Sunland Trl	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,402 (+4%)	1mo	$391,990	$163	81
32215 Sunbeam Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,417 (+4%)	1mo	$364,990	$151	79
32407 Sunbeam Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,353 (+2%)	2mo	$352,990	$150	78
32503 Midsummer Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,342 (+1%)	1mo	$324,990	$139	76
32511 Midsummer Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,342 (+1%)	1mo	$350,990	$150	76
32455 Sunbeam Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,342 (+1%)	2mo	$329,990	$141	74
32447 Sunbeam Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,342 (+1%)	2mo	$326,990	$140	74
32415 Sunbeam Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,342 (+1%)	5mo	$320,990	$137	74
31423 Splitting Willow Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,242 (-3%)	1mo	$349,999	$156	63
4430 Noah Grove Ln	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,594 (+12%)	3mo	$474,900	$183	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-42,096
• Equity at exit: $48,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-47,198
• Equity at exit: $28,246

Cash invested: $91,472 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,262 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,713
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$408 /mo · $4,900/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,858

Max offer price $326,685

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $432	+0% $320	+5% $207	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $191	+0% $320	+5% $448	+10% $577
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $403	base $320	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,671
• Closing costs: $9,801
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.5	2992	$3,732	$1.25	0d	1	0.54mi
7302 New Pecan Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	4.0	2844	$3,299	$1.16	45d	1	0.88mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.91mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	14d	1	0.98mi
33002 Franklin Brooks Dr Pattison, TX	4.0	3.5	3255	$4,385	$1.35	0d	1	1.07mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	14d	1	1.07mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $341,740 Active 963 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $341,740 Active 960 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $341,740 Active 959 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $341,740 Active 958 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $341,740 Active 957 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $341,740 Active 955 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $341,740 Active 951 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $341,740 Active 950 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $341,740 Active 949 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $341,740 Active 946 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $341,740 Active 945 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $341,740 Active 944 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $341,740 Active 943 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $341,740 Active 942 DOM
15. 2025-09-10
    price $341,740 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

16. 2025-07-02
    price $336,740 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

17. 2025-03-08
    price $347,740 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

18. 2025-01-17
    price $346,990 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

19. 2024-07-18
    price $345,740 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

20. 2024-04-02
    price $344,740 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

21. 2024-02-10
    price $343,240 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

22. 2023-11-01
    listed $342,990 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    The Gardenia is a two-story floorplan by M/I Homes offering 2,318 to 2,393 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a flexible 2- or 3-car garage, this home is designed to accommodate your lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,299
• − Property taxes: −$4,900
• − Insurance: −$1,633
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,132
• − Management: −$3,132
• − Depreciation: −$9,504
• Taxable loss: −$1,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$349
• After-tax cash flow: $4,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great balance of modern amenities and curb appeal, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value by improving curb appeal and outdoor living space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value by improving curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $341,740 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $336,740 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $347,740 Zillow
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $346,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $345,740 Zillow
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $344,740 Zillow
• 2024-02-10 Price Changed $343,240 Zillow
• 2023-11-01 Listed $342,990 Zillow