3100 S Kinney Rd #57 · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$57,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition $105/sqft · 36% below area Est $90k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Western Way RV Resort, a vibrant 55+ active adult community nestled in scenic Tucson! This charming, fully furnished 1-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home offers 550 sq ft of comfortable living with stunning mountain and sunset views. Enjoy modern touches like laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, a full dining area and a cozy breakfast bar. Relax on the covered deck or patio surrounded by low-care landscaping and a tall fence for privacy. There is also generous covered parking & a storage shed. Community amenities include pickleball, pool, spa, recreation room, exercise facilities, laundry facilities, water, sewer, garbage and much much more.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - TH
• HOA & community: Community pool; Community spa / hot tub; Fitness center; Recreation/rec center; Pickleball courts; Paved streets; Association maintenance provided; Association fees include common area maintenance, sewer, street maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Covered carport space (1)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces west; Entry level: one
• Construction: Frame and siding construction; Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on foundation (manufactured-home construction materials)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Wood fencing; Shed(s); Decorative gravel; Shrubs; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($951 rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,775 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.38%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $57,500
• Delta: -36.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5716 W Bar X St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (0%)	9mo	$68,000	$124	68
5825 W Bar X St	0.31mi	2/2.0 (+1)	550 (0%)	16mo	$115,000	$209	63
6012 W Bar X St	0.31mi	2/1.5 (+1)	600 (+9%)	3mo	$89,900	$150	61
5772 W Lazy St S	0.39mi	1/1.0	624 (+14%)	3mo	$100,000	$160	57
5780 W Lazy St S	0.39mi	2/2.0 (+1)	600 (+9%)	4mo	$155,000	$258	54
5448 W Lazy St S	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (+9%)	20mo	$82,500	$138	29
5509 W Lazy Heart St	0.66mi	1/1.5	620 (+13%)	22mo	$130,000	$210	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $10,643
• Equity at exit: $8,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $28,276
• Equity at exit: $4,972

Cash invested: $16,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $503

Max offer price $57,500

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,375
• Closing costs: $1,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,500 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,500 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,500 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,500 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,500 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $57,500 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,500 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,500 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $57,500 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $57,500 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,500 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $57,500 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,500 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,500 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $57,500 Active 675-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,221
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$913
• − Management: −$913
• − Depreciation: −$1,673
• Taxable income: $3,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$850
• After-tax cash flow: $3,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully furnished 1-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home in Western Way RV Resort is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a covered deck and patio area, and is located in a community with various amenities. The home is ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with some cosmetic updates to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Replace the ceiling tiles in the living area — Replacing the ceiling tiles can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Rental Clean the air filters — A clean HVAC system can improve air quality and reduce energy costs, making it more attractive to renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Replace the ceiling tiles in the living area — Replacing the ceiling tiles can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Rental Clean the air filters — A clean HVAC system can improve air quality and reduce energy costs, making it more attractive to renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $57,500 MLSSAZ