2650 W Union Hills Dr #161 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$35,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition $46/sqft · 5% below area Est $37k · 5% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 2 bedrooms , 2 bath mobile home in the desirable Friendly Village of Orangewood . You are greeted by a welcoming front porch . Inside you will find a comfortable living room with a neutral palette , blinds and soft carpeting . The kitchen features white cabinetry , tile backsplash and essential built in appliances . New roof completed this year and washer and dryer included . Step outside to a covered patio ideal for al fresco dining , plus a convenient storage shed for your extra belongings . Located in a vibrant community , residents enjoy access to fantastic amenities including a golf course , pool , heated jaccuzzi , walking paths , exercise room and more . This value won't disappoint !

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $884 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.19%
• DSCR: 5.81
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,001
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -5.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #263	0.01mi	2/2.0	780 (+2%)	17mo	$38,000	$49	82
2650 W Union Hills Dr #271	0.00mi	2/1.0	744 (-3%)	14mo	$18,922	$25	79
2650 W Union Hills Dr #323	0.00mi	2/2.0	720 (-6%)	15mo	$32,000	$44	77
2650 W Union Hills Dr #22	0.00mi	2/2.0	720 (-6%)	19mo	$52,000	$72	74
2650 W Union Hills Dr #50	0.05mi	2/2.0	868 (+13%)	7mo	$40,500	$47	70
2650 W Union Hills Dr #245	0.17mi	1/1.0 (-1)	840 (+9%)	10mo	$35,000	$42	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $46,449
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.88×
• Total profit: $96,862
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $884

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18410 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,051	$1.75	24d	1	0.29mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,712	$1.73	2d	17	0.43mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	18d	2	0.46mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	3d	19	0.57mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	2d	80	0.59mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	8d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	8d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	15d	1	0.73mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	44d	1	0.76mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,374	$1.69	2d	69	0.82mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	17d	1	0.83mi
18626 N 34th Ave #2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	570	$1,595	$2.80	44d	1	0.88mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	44d	1	0.91mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,132	$1.83	22d	1	0.93mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,440	$1.67	24d	1	0.93mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,522	$1.77	44d	1	0.93mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	2d	2	1.06mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	749	$1,135	$1.52	3d	2	1.06mi
2222 W Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	616	$1,285	$2.09	2d	32	1.08mi
20231 N 21st Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	770	$995	$1.29	24d	1	1.13mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	3d	14	1.16mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,548	$1.61	2d	14	1.20mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	2d	34	1.24mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	44d	1	1.27mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	3d	1	1.28mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	3d	20	1.29mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	24d	1	1.29mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	24d	2	1.36mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	13d	2	1.36mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	24d	1	1.36mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	24d	1	1.37mi
17211 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,500	$1.81	18d	2	1.37mi
2142 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	22d	1	1.40mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit A213 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	758	$1,495	$1.97	44d	1	1.41mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	2d	40	1.41mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,221	$1.52	1d	32	1.49mi
20401 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,655	$1.98	2d	13	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $35,000 Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Welcome to this 2 bedrooms , 2 bath mobile home in the desirable Friendly Village of Orangewood . You are greeted by a welcoming front porch . Inside you will find a comfortable living room with a neutral palette , blinds and soft carpeting . The kitchen features white cabinetry , tile backsplash and essential built in appliances . New roof completed this year and washer and dryer included . Step outside to a covered patio ideal for al fresco dining , plus a convenient storage shed for your extra belongings . Located in a vibrant community , residents enjoy access to fantastic amenities including a golf course , pool , heated jaccuzzi , walking paths , exercise room and more . This value won't disappoint !

16. 2025-02-17
    historical
17. 2025-02-16
    status Active
18. 2025-01-24
    historical
19. 2024-10-12
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $10,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,563
• After-tax cash flow: $8,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. It has a good roof and is located in a desirable community with amenities. Paint and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Palm tree — Need trimming
• Minor Lattice fence — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace blinds — New blinds improve light control and aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance
• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and exterior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Palm tree · Need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Lattice fence · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace blinds — New blinds improve light control and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and exterior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-02-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-12 Listed $40,000 ARMLS