27917 Coral Shores Rd · Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$399,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1972 4,140 sqft lot Est $528k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

IMMACULATE HOME ON ONE OF THE BEST CANALS IN THE LOWER KEYS. 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WITH 1344 SF OF LIVING UNDER AIR!! FORMAL DINING ROOM, HUGH KITCHEN, BEAUTIFUL MASTER BEDROOM WITH PRIVATE DECK, 12 X 30 TILED SCREENED PORCH WITH IN GROUND JACUZZI, CONCRETE SEAWALL, EXTRA STORAGE AREA, PLENTY OF PARKING, NEW WINDOWSTO HELP KEEP THE UTILITY BILLS LOW!! IF YOU DON'T SEE IT NOW DON'T BLAME ME WHEN I 'S GONE!!!

Key facts

• Boating canal
• Privacy
• Wooded lots

Tags

• BOATING CANAL
• 46 FOOT SEAWALL
• 5 MINUTE BOAT RIDE
• WOODED LOTS
• PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned URM - Urban Res Mobile Home District; Subdivision: Coral Shores Estates
• Financial info: Cash terms preferred
• HOA & community: No association fees; No first right of refusal; No HOA services included

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Off-street parking; Guest parking
• Utilities: FKAA water; Municipal sewer with public sewer hook-up
• Home design: Manufactured home; Built in 1972; Located on the bay/gulf side (Mile Marker 27)
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Concrete seawall
• Exterior features: On the waterfront (canal front) with canal view; Seawall dockage constructed of concrete; Less than 1/4 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Fixer upper; Pets allowed; Rentals allowed with restrictions (minimum 28 days)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $383k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $383k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $399k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $383,190 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $528,192
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27970 Lobster Tail Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,449 (+8%)	1mo	$570,000	$393	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $228,384
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $664,169
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33042

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,832 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,039/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$805
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,614

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $399,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 425-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $399,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,039 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,312 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,273/yr (+$106/mo · 62.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,039
• − Insurance: −$7,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,679
• − Management: −$3,679
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$4,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $3,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Big Pine Key

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,441
• Household income: $103,041
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 146.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 491.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+348.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $399,000 FLKMLS
• 2001-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-28 Sold (MLS) $140,000 FLKMLS
• 2000-10-03 Listed $147,900 FLKMLS
• 1991-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,039 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.