233 Forgotten Trl · Lexington, SC 29072

$229,800

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · Townhouse · 119 Days on market

Built 2025 217 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The South Wind II in Walker’s Trail: Interior Townhome This luxury interior residence is thoughtfully designed for elegant, low-maintenance living in one of Lexington’s most sought-after communities. Blending timeless style with modern comfort, it offers a refined retreat surrounded by convenience and quality. Inside, oak hardwood stairs lead into a bright, open layout highlighted by wide-plank flooring and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen is a striking focal point, featuring beautiful countertops, farmhouse sink, high-end fixtures, a subway tile backsplash, and upgraded cabinetry, hardware and finishes. A spacious island adds functionality for daily living and enterta

Key facts

• Wide-plank flooring
• Oak hardwood stairs
• Plush carpet

Tags

• OAK HARDWOOD STAIRS
• WIDE-PLANK FLOORING
• PLUSH CARPET
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• HIGH-END FIXTURES
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#8 in SC, #1,502 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Creek Elementary (math 56% / reading 54%, grade C, #119 of 597 statewide, top 20%, 863 students, 18% FRL); Lexington High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #23 of 196 statewide, top 11%, 2,410 students, 17% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $186,026 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-44,325
• Equity at exit: $34,264

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,422
• Equity at exit: $19,869

Cash invested: $64,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29072

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,447/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,010

Max offer price $212,654

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,450
• Closing costs: $6,894
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Conway Dr Lexington, SC	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	3d	1	0.67mi
333 Canary Grass Ct Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1672	$1,950	$1.17	14d	1	0.81mi
855 Park Rd Lexington, SC	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	23d	1	0.90mi
759 Dawsons Park Way Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,869	$1.27	21d	1	0.94mi
926 Dawsons Park Way Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,879	$1.28	14d	1	1.05mi
121 Park Ridge Way Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,100	$1.25	23d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   price $229,800
3. 2026-01-29
   price $238,952
4. 2025-12-10
   listed $240,582 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,872
• − Property taxes: −$3,447
• − Insurance: −$1,149
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − Depreciation: −$6,685
• Taxable loss: −$5,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,296
• After-tax cash flow: $-125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #1502

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 122,563
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 69,407
• Household income: $106,382
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.53%
• Current HPI: 212.3235
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $229,800 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $238,952 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $240,582 Consolidated MLS