443 County Road 13 · West Kill, NY 12468

$179,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1950 Poor condition 8.62 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 8.62-acre parcel located in Lexington with a long driveway from County Road 13 leading to a private open area. Property includes an older trailer situated on a slab, along with existing well, septic, and electric service. The land is partially wooded, and additional clearing would open up beautiful views of the surrounding Catskill Mountains. Adjacent 8.72-acre parcel is also available for purchase. Excellent opportunity for a full-time residence, vacation property, or investment use.

Key facts

• 8.62-acre parcel
• Existing well
• Long driveway

Tags

• 8.62-ACRE PARCEL
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• PRIVATE OPEN AREA
• EXISTING WELL
• EXISTING SEPTIC
• EXISTING ELECTRIC SERVICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-family residence
• Construction: 470 above-grade finished area; 470 below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Located on 8.62-acre lot; Rural/residential setting (zoned RR)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #517 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $168,254 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $45,205
• Equity at exit: $99,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $132,604
• Equity at exit: $169,800

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12468

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$1,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$445
• After-tax cash flow: $1,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and renovations, including a new roof, exterior updates, and landscaping. Clearing the land and improving the property's appearance will significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Aerial view shows a dilapidated roof structure
• Major exterior — Aerial view shows an older trailer on a slab
• Major interior walls/paint — No interior photos available
• Major bathrooms — No interior photos available
• Major flooring — No interior photos available
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No interior photos available
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No interior photos available

Value-add opportunities

• Both Clearing the land — Opening up beautiful views of the surrounding Catskill Mountains
• Both Re-roofing the trailer — Improves the overall appearance and functionality
• Both Painting and staining the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Upgrading HVAC and electrical systems — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's aesthetic and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Aerial view shows a dilapidated roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · Aerial view shows an older trailer on a slab	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No interior photos available	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No interior photos available	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No interior photos available	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No interior photos available	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No interior photos available	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Clearing the land — Opening up beautiful views of the surrounding Catskill Mountains ↑
• Both Re-roofing the trailer — Improves the overall appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Painting and staining the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Upgrading HVAC and electrical systems — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's aesthetic and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631590
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,942
• Composite: 42.57/100
• National rank: #6842
• State rank: #517 of 755 in NY

Livability — West Kill

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,413

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 8% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Mexico
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 481.0663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $179,000 HVCRMLS