Emerald Plan · Richmond, TX 77469

$259,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,355 sqft · SingleFamily · 372 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The charming Emerald plan has everything you need. Indulge in the little things in life, like enjoying your coffee out on the spacious front porch. Inside, you are greeted with your large, open-concept family room with a combined dining room. This space is perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size with friends and family. At the front of the home, you are also welcomed by the two bedrooms, with the third bedroom boasting a convenient walk-in closet, as well as the full secondary bathroom residing in the middle of the two bedrooms. Make your way past the combined dining and family space where you will discover your sizable kitchen area complete with sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, as well as the option to include a kitchen island! Just ahead toward the back of the home, you will come across your walk-in utility room, the private master suite, and access to your huge backyard. The secluded master suite includes an attractive cultured marble countertop with the option for double vanities and LED down lighting, a shower/tub enclosure, and a huge walk-in closet! Want to add an extra flair to your master bathroom? Opt to include a super shower with standard double vanities instead of the standard shower/bathtub enclosure! The choice is yours. If you are the outdoorsy type, you will love having the option to include a covered patio, along with a covered breezeway that leads to your two-car garage! Not only will your garage. ..

Key facts

• Spacious front porch
• Sizable kitchen area
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• SIZABLE KITCHEN AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLAT-PANEL BIRCH CABINETS
• DESIGNER LIGHT FIXTURES

🏗️ New construction. The $259,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $339,950.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-701 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.8% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Velasquez (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 497 students, 57% FRL); Reading J H (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,588 students, 28% FRL); George Ranch H S (math 52% / reading 76%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,511 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1645 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 372 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,662 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 372 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.84%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,950
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -23.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4611 Compass Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+29%)	2mo	$330,000	$188	70
4647 North Star Trl	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+29%)	2mo	$324,900	$186	66
4638 North Star Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+27%)	4mo	$349,900	$203	64
4618 Hydra Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+29%)	4mo	$374,900	$215	59
10710 Midnight Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+29%)	3mo	$329,000	$188	58
4638 Hydra Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (+28%)	5mo	$389,900	$225	52
10515 Psencik Rd	2.21mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+12%)	39mo	$459,999	$303	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-105,810
• Equity at exit: $50,688

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-173,123
• Equity at exit: $29,393

Cash invested: $95,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $346,945 ($220/sqft)
• Median days on market: 365 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1645
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,099/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,974

Max offer price $238,530

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-466	-5% $-583	+0% $-701	+5% $-818	+10% $-936
Rent	-10% $-866	-5% $-783	+0% $-701	+5% $-618	+10% $-536
Rate	-1.0pp $-530	-0.5pp $-614	base $-701	+0.5pp $-789	+1.0pp $-879

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,988
• Closing costs: $10,198
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $259,990 Active 372 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $259,990 Active 370 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $259,990 Active 369 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $259,990 Active 368 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $259,990 Active 367 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $259,990 Active 364 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $259,990 Active 362 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $259,990 Active 361 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $259,990 Active 359 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $259,990 Active 357 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $259,990 Active 356 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $259,990 Active 355 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $259,990 Active 354 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $259,990 Active 353 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $259,990 Active 350 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $259,990 Active 349 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $259,990 Active 348 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $259,990 Active 347 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,990 Active 346 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,990 Active 345 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $259,990 Active 344 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $259,990 Active 343 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $259,990 Active 342 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $259,990 Active 340 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,990 Active 339 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,990 Active 338 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $259,990 Active 337 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $259,990 Active 336 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 335 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $259,990 Active 334 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $259,990 Active 333 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $259,990 Active 332 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $259,990 Active 331 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $259,990 Active 330 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $259,990 Active 329 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $259,990 Active 327 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $259,990 Active 325 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $259,990 Active 324 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $259,990 Active 321 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $259,990 Active 320 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $259,990 Active 319 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $259,990 Active 318 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $259,990 Active 316 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $259,990 Active 312 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,990 Active 311 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,990 Active 310 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,990 Active 307 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,990 Active 306 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 305 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,990 Active 304 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,042
• − Property taxes: −$5,099
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$9,889
• Taxable loss: −$14,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,775–$20,325 screening

The Emerald plan is move-in ready with good condition and curb appeal. Minor updates to exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary William Velasquez F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 High George Ranch H S B- TX #224/1,632 Nat'l #3,064/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-31 Listed $274,990 Zillow