610 Quail St · Smithfield, VA 23430

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 5,845 sqft lot Est $205k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* INVESTOR SPECIAL * Come bring your new vision to Smithfield! Property sold as-is, where-is. No repairs made by seller. All outbuildings, garages, sheds, flues and chimneys convey as-is. Subject to short sale.

Key facts

• 5,845 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.6% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in VA, #2,722 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.99%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,960
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 Quail St	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,153 (+3%)	6mo	$325,000	$282	84
12276 Great Spring Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,072 (-4%)	11mo	$120,000	$112	69
205 Hillcrest (and Parcel 21a-09-028 Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,283 (+15%)	11mo	$210,000	$164	64
889 W Main St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-2%)	8mo	$200,000	$183	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $12,076
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $67,581
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23430

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $776/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
338 Main St Unit A Smithfield, VA	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.47mi
108 S Mason St Smithfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,995	$2.23	43d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$864/yr (+$72/mo · 111.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$776
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $5,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,296
• After-tax cash flow: $7,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Smithfield

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithfield, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,057

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.15%
• Current HPI: 280.3343
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $200,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $776 · +1336.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.