2346 Arbordale Ave · The Villages, FL 32162

$296,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 2011 3,920 sqft lot Est $286k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. ~ PRICE REDUCED ~ BRAND NEW ROOF AND AC APRIL 2026. This well-maintained two-bedroom, two-bath Durham model in Montbrook Villa offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with attractive rock landscaping and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, enjoy brand-new luxury vinyl plank flooring, a freshly painted interior, high ceilings, and Pull outs in kitchen, kitchen pantry that adds extra convenience. The bright and airy primary suite features a tray ceiling and a spacious walk-in closet. Step out to the enclosed lanai with pull-down shades—perfect for year-round relaxation—and take advantage of the generous outdoor living space. Located in The Vi

Key facts

• Kitchen pantry
• Outdoor living space
• Enclosed lanai

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• KITCHEN PANTRY
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.09 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: Community with deed restrictions; Dog park; Fitness center; Golf available; golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed; Total monthly fees $204 (total annual $2,448)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (22x12) with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story; Faces northeast; Homesteaded
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as Durham model
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Tray ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $220k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,254 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,606
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2448 Ravenwood Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,138 (-2%)	0mo	$279,900	$246	87
1999 Kelmscott St	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-0%)	4mo	$290,000	$251	69
2232 Shanewood Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,158 (-0%)	15mo	$299,000	$258	69
2498 Yalaha Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,210 (+4%)	6mo	$355,000	$293	66
1858 Endsley Ct	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-0%)	1mo	$270,000	$234	66
2019 Altamonte Way	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+3%)	5mo	$345,000	$288	64
1861 Endsley Ct	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-0%)	7mo	$240,000	$208	62
2020 Peaceful Pl	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-0%)	16mo	$271,000	$234	62
1833 Endsley Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-0%)	11mo	$260,000	$225	56
2594 Berrington Loop	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,216 (+5%)	12mo	$235,000	$193	53
1968 Amberjack Ter	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+3%)	16mo	$307,000	$257	51
2595 Edenville Path	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,310 (+13%)	11mo	$245,000	$187	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,759
• Equity at exit: $44,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,709
• Equity at exit: $25,593

Cash invested: $82,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,115/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,708

Max offer price $278,517

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $-15	+0% $-99	+5% $-183	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-201	+0% $-99	+5% $3	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-24	base $-99	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,000
• Closing costs: $8,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	22d	1	0.16mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	22d	1	0.18mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	22d	1	0.19mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,054	$1.89	22d	28	0.34mi
8168 Arrow Wood Loop Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.5	1317	$1,754	$1.33	22d	1	0.61mi
8128 Arrow Wood Loop Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.5	1317	$1,699	$1.29	22d	1	0.66mi
8118 Arrow Wood Loop Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.5	1317	$1,704	$1.29	22d	1	0.68mi
4980 Red Maple Ln Unit B1 Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,884	$1.72	22d	1	0.83mi
4980 Red Maple Ln Unit C1 Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,801	$1.25	22d	1	0.83mi
5115 Spanish Harbor Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,494	$1.51	22d	29	0.83mi
1607 Allendale Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	22d	1	1.05mi
3025 Bartow Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,500	$2.47	22d	1	1.13mi
2383 Camden Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	22d	1	1.21mi
2372 Travis Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	22d	1	1.28mi
7011 Homestead Lp Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,469	$1.47	22d	22	1.36mi
2368 McClellanville Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$4,800	$4.20	22d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $296,000
3. 2026-03-15
   price $299,000
4. 2026-02-19
   price $309,000
5. 2026-01-31
   price $319,000
6. 2026-01-21
   listed $339,000 Active
7. 2016-07-20
   soldstatus $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,115 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,115 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,581
• − Property taxes: −$3,115
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,479
• − Management: −$2,479
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$8,611
• Taxable loss: −$6,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,489
• After-tax cash flow: $301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+34.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $296,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $309,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $319,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,115 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.