4512 N Timberwood Pt · Crystal River, FL 34428

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1987 1.08 ac lot Est $191k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman special! Cash only offers. AS-IS. 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home on over an acre at the end of the street. Very private and rural. No deed restrictions. Mobile home is in disrepair. No appliances. AC works good. Will need lots of elbow grease. Paint, flooring, kitchen cabinets, bathroom cabinets, windows will all need to be done or pull it out and bring in a new mobile or build your home here. Endless possibilities with this one. Property has working septic, working well and power pole so save on paying those high impact fees. Perfect for investor or handyman. Great deal at a great price! Use your imagination on this one. Hard to find even vacant land at this price so just imagine what you can do!

Key facts

• Solid subflooring
• Metal roof
• Gulf access

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• SOLID SUBFLOORING
• GULF ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned RURMH
• Financial info: No financial details applicable
• HOA & community: No HOA or association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Private utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story (one level); Faces south; Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Dirt road access on a private maintained road; Approximately 1.08 acres (188 x 250)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features specified
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.5% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,099/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $150k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.32%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,360
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4291 N Mandrake Pt	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+3%)	4mo	$160,000	$106	71
4801 N Mattox Pt	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-1%)	3mo	$190,000	$130	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $18,749
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $71,742
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,603/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,243

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $761	-5% $718	+0% $676	+5% $633	+10% $591
Rent	-10% $510	-5% $593	+0% $676	+5% $759	+10% $842
Rate	-1.0pp $751	-0.5pp $714	base $676	+0.5pp $637	+1.0pp $597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $149,900 Active
18. 2025-04-15
    soldstatus $70,000
19. 2025-04-08
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Handyman special! Cash only offers. AS-IS. 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home on over an acre at the end of the street. Very private and rural. No deed restrictions. Mobile home is in disrepair. No appliances. AC works good. Will need lots of elbow grease. Paint, flooring, kitchen cabinets, bathroom cabinets, windows will all need to be done or pull it out and bring in a new mobile or build your home here. Endless possibilities with this one. Property has working septic, working well and power pole so save on paying those high impact fees. Perfect for investor or handyman. Great deal at a great price! Use your imagination on this one. Hard to find even vacant land at this price so just imagine what you can do!

20. 2025-03-11
    status Pending 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Handyman special! Cash only offers. AS-IS. 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home on over an acre at the end of the street. Very private and rural. No deed restrictions. Mobile home is in disrepair. No appliances. AC works good. Will need lots of elbow grease. Paint, flooring, kitchen cabinets, bathroom cabinets, windows will all need to be done or pull it out and bring in a new mobile or build your home here. Endless possibilities with this one. Property has working septic, working well and power pole so save on paying those high impact fees. Perfect for investor or handyman. Great deal at a great price! Use your imagination on this one. Hard to find even vacant land at this price so just imagine what you can do!

21. 2025-03-07
    listed $78,000 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Handyman special! Cash only offers. AS-IS. 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home on over an acre at the end of the street. Very private and rural. No deed restrictions. Mobile home is in disrepair. No appliances. AC works good. Will need lots of elbow grease. Paint, flooring, kitchen cabinets, bathroom cabinets, windows will all need to be done or pull it out and bring in a new mobile or build your home here. Endless possibilities with this one. Property has working septic, working well and power pole so save on paying those high impact fees. Perfect for investor or handyman. Great deal at a great price! Use your imagination on this one. Hard to find even vacant land at this price so just imagine what you can do!

22. 2002-02-07
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,603 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,603 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,603
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $6,044
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $6,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+261.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-08 Sold (MLS) $70,000 RACC
• 2025-03-11 Pending — RACC
• 2025-03-07 Listed $78,000 RACC
• 2002-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,603 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.