10122 Timberland Dr · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,004 sqft · Manufactured public records · 255 Days on market

Built 1987 3,466 sqft lot $318/mo HOA · 14% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ponderosa Pines is one of the nicest and best maintained 55+ community parks in Nevada County. It is one of about three resident owned parks in California, which means low space rent and owner pride. Move-in ready, enjoy rural living with nearby access to Grass Valley and Auburn. This 2 bed/2 bath double wide home is light and bright, quaint, clean and comfortable. It's close to mailboxes, guest parking and club house amenities. The residents in this park are warm and friendly. The open floor plan includes a dining area and bar. Refrigerator is included as well as a GENERAC generator that's only two years old! Large walk in closet and plus size shed offer plenty of storage. Kitchen sink/cou

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Rv parking
• Clubhouse amenities

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CLUBHOUSE AMENITIES
• RV PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease not applicable (listed as No), with an indicated land lease amount of $308
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with monthly fee (maintenance of grounds included); Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, putting green, RV parking/storage, game room, picnic area, year‑round pond, guest parking, access to public transit, and pet restrictions; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Detached parking; Guest parking available; No enclosed garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Internet available; Generator power available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Built in 1987; Fleetwood Homes Sandalwood model
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Storage area; On‑site storage/shed; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Breakfast area; Pantry cabinet; Synthetic (man‑made) countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Dual-pane full windows; Carpeted porch steps and railed entry; Covered patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.40%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,919
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $48,645
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$318
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $585	-5% $543	+0% $501	+5% $459	+10% $416
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $413	+0% $501	+5% $588	+10% $676
Rate	-1.0pp $576	-0.5pp $539	base $501	+0.5pp $462	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $318 · $3,816/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 235 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 234 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
• − Management: −$2,123
• − HOA: −$3,816
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $4,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$968
• After-tax cash flow: $5,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+29.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +101.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.