7043 Coneflower Crk · Katy, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +6.0/30.0
- Schools +5.4/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- 1% rule +3.9/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +2.3/5.0
- DSCR +0.4/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$300,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the master-planned community of Elyson, 7043 Coneflower Creek offers modern design, thoughtful layout, and exceptional neighborhood amenities. Built in 2020 by Chesmar Homes, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features 1,714 square feet with an open-concept layout connecting the living room, kitchen, and dining area. The kitchen includes quartz countertops, white cabinetry, stainless appliances, a large island with seating, pantry, and herringbone tile backsplash. Wood-look tile flooring runs throughout the main living areas, adding durability and style. The primary suite offers a spacious bedroom, dual-sink vanity, and walk-in shower, plus a large walk-in closet.
Key facts
- Quartz countertops
- Quiet cul-de-sac
- Stainless appliances
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (31.5% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (11.4% below list).
- Recommended offer: $206k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Katy — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
- Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.89% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.01%
- Cash-on-cash
- -8.16%
- DSCR
- 0.64
- GRM
- 9.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $409,272
- List price
- $300,000
- Delta
- -26.70%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24019 Breezy Bank Trl | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 | 1,714 (0%) | 0mo | $327,440 | $191 | 70 |
| 6822 Greenwood Valley Pl | 0.31mi | 3/2.0 | 1,818 (+6%) | 7mo | $362,000 | $199 | 70 |
| 24003 Breezy Bank Trl | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 | 1,714 (0%) | 5mo | $353,915 | $206 | 67 |
| 7635 Meadow Mouse Ln | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 | 1,714 (0%) | 3mo | $322,565 | $188 | 65 |
| 7610 Meadow Mouse Ln | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 | 1,756 (+2%) | 7mo | $343,265 | $195 | 60 |
| 24227 Tallgrass Meadow Trl | 0.57mi | 3/2.0 | 1,618 (-6%) | 8mo | $317,000 | $196 | 58 |
| 6723 Barrington Creek Trce | 0.63mi | 3/2.0 | 1,781 (+4%) | 8mo | $329,999 | $185 | 57 |
| 7655 Meadow Mouse Ln | 0.70mi | 3/2.5 | 1,817 (+6%) | 4mo | $343,265 | $189 | 52 |
| 7611 Meadow Mouse Ln | 0.66mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,910 (+11%) | 4mo | $339,690 | $178 | 39 |
| 7627 Meadow Mouse Ln | 0.68mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,910 (+11%) | 4mo | $328,940 | $172 | 39 |
| 7638 Meadow Mouse Ln | 0.67mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,910 (+11%) | 8mo | $315,000 | $165 | 36 |
| 7654 Meadow Mouse Ln | 0.69mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,910 (+11%) | 8mo | $315,000 | $165 | 35 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -35.2%
- Equity multiple
- -0.10×
- Total profit
- $-92,377
- Equity at exit
- $44,731
- IRR
- -79.2%
- Equity multiple
- -0.85×
- Total profit
- $-155,740
- Equity at exit
- $25,939
Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 38 active · 18 under contract
- Months of supply
- 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $349,990 ($190/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 85 d
- This list price
- 5% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +25.4% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 77493
- Rents YoY
- -0.8%
- Active inventory
- 3403
- Price-to-rent
- 9.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,659 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,573
- Tax from tax record
- −$856 /mo · $10,277/yr
- Insurance
- −$125
- HOA
- −$117
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$558
- Net cashflow
- $-571
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-401 | -5% $-486 | +0% $-571 | +5% $-656 | +10% $-741 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-781 | -5% $-676 | +0% $-571 | +5% $-466 | +10% $-361 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-420 | -0.5pp $-495 | base $-571 | +0.5pp $-649 | +1.0pp $-728 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $75,000
- Closing costs
- $9,000
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24114 Blooming Daisy Cir Katy, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1500 | $3,300 | $2.20 | 93d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 7706 Cattail Shallows Ln Katy, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1979 | $1,800 | $0.91 | 19d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 22700 Elyson Falls Dr Katy, TX | 2.0–4.0 | 2.0–3.0 | 1658 | $2,478 | $1.49 | 7d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 5938 First Blush Dr Katy, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1288 | $2,500 | $1.94 | 4d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 6123 Severson Lake Ct Katy, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2168 | $3,100 | $1.43 | 37d | 1 | 1.43mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Association: Cohere LifeAnnual association feeAssociation amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, community pool, playground, dog park, park, trails, picnic area, meeting/banquet/party room, party room, basketball court, sport court, pickleball, tennis courts, trash service
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garageDrivewayGarage with garage door opener
- Security
- Leased security systemSmoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2020Located on a cul-de-sacSubdivision settingPond on lotSide yard
- Construction
- Brick constructionYear built 2020Slab foundationComposition roof
- Exterior features
- Covered patioDeckFully fenced backyardFenceSprinkler/irrigationPaved drivewayPorchPatioPrivate yardTennis court(s) (community)Association pool
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveGarbage disposalRefrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom (first level) — 15 x 13Bedroom (first level) — 11 x 13
- Flooring
- CarpetTile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Has heatingHas cooling
- Interior features
- Breakfast barHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryQuartz countersSeparate showerTub/showerWindow treatmentsCeiling fan(s)Kitchen/dining comboLow emissivity windowsWindow coverings
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryerWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupUtility room (first level) — 8 x 6
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $300,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $300,000 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $300,000 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $300,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $300,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $300,000 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $300,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $300,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $300,000 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $300,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $300,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $300,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $300,000 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $300,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $300,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $300,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $300,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $300,000 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-07-07pricedays on market $300,000 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $315,000 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $315,000 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $315,000 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $315,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $315,000 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $315,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $315,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $315,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $315,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $315,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $315,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $315,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $315,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $315,000 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $315,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $315,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $315,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $315,000 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $315,000 Active 8 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $10,277 · $856/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $10,277 · $856/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,905
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,805
- − Property taxes
- −$10,277
- − Insurance
- −$1,500
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,552
- − Management
- −$2,552
- − HOA
- −$1,404
- − Depreciation
- −$8,727
- Taxable loss
- −$11,912
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,859
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,995/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo
This 2020-built single-family home in Elyson is in excellent condition with modern design and thoughtful layout. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates to enhance curb appeal and modernize the kitchen.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
- Resale Replace herringbone tile backsplash with modern material — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
- Both Install smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Katy ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4825170
- Math proficiency
- 61% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 63% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $90,312
- Composite
- 56.59/100
- National rank
- #1146
- State rank
- #29 of 826 in TX
Livability — Katy
- Score
- 76/100
- State rank
- #111
- US rank
- #3613
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Harris County · 5,571,493 people
- City population
- 413,575
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 71,484
- Household income
- $118,464
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 21% of renters
Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 5,571,493 people
- By 2030
- 6,089,821 · +9.3%
- By 2040
- 7,142,806 · +28.2%
- By 2050
- 8,185,864 · +46.9%
- By 2075
- 10,574,329 · +89.8%
- By 2100
- 12,109,958 · +117.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 20%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%
Political lean MEDSL · Harris
- 2024 margin
- Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -140.65%
- Current HPI
- 233.1683
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.80%
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
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Price history
-10.4% since first listed21 events — show timeline
- 2026-07-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2026-07-07 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
- 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2026-05-27 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
- 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2026-04-30 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
- 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2026-04-07 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
- 2026-03-13 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
- 2026-03-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2026-02-26 Price Changed $324,900 HARMLS
- 2026-02-24 Rental Removed $2,400 HARMLS
- 2026-02-04 Listed $340,860 HARMLS
- 2026-01-28 Price Changed $2,400 HARMLS
- 2026-01-20 Price Changed $2,450 HARMLS
- 2026-01-10 Listed for Rent $2,550 HARMLS
- 2022-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2022-01-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
- 2021-12-29 Pending — HARMLS
- 2021-12-20 Pending — HARMLS
- 2021-12-11 Listed $334,990 HARMLS
Property tax history
+26.7%/yrLatest (2025): $10,277 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…