18507 Oak Leaf Gap Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

$319,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,861 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $172/sqft · 13% below area Est $367k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Scene-stealing beauty with abundant bedrooms and baths! Introducing the Hamilton plan, a thoughtfully designed one-story home that embraces open-concept living. The seamless flow connects the gourmet kitchen to the dining area, making entertaining effortless. Enjoy ample prep space, modern finishes, and functionality ideal for any home chef. The private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a spa-inspired bath featuring a separate tub and shower, plus a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms include walk-in closets, providing generous storage for all.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk in closet

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA INSPIRED BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• SCENIC LAKE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,016 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,035
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -12.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17810 Pine Street St	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,188 (+18%)	4mo	$409,000	$187	55
4700 Harvey Rd	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,998 (+7%)	8mo	$545,000	$273	53
17809 Pine St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-10%)	20mo	$143,000	$85	46
20203 Live Oak Rd	1.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (-4%)	8mo	$395,000	$222	44
4004 Gatewood Rd	1.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (+8%)	0mo	$389,900	$193	42
4811 Sherri Ln	0.84mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+8%)	8mo	$395,000	$197	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-87,717
• Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-131,195
• Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $369,999 ($236/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -16.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1723
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $245,794

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-292	-5% $-402	+0% $-513	+5% $-623	+10% $-734
Rent	-10% $-683	-5% $-598	+0% $-513	+5% $-428	+10% $-343
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-431	base $-513	+0.5pp $-596	+1.0pp $-680

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18507 Oak Leaf Gap Dr, Crosby TX 77532Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-30
• Financial info: List price $346,849

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Spec home, Hamilton plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1861

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-07-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-07-06
   days on market $319,990 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-07-06
   days on market $319,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-07-05
   days on market $319,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-07-03
   days on market $319,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-07-02
   days on market $319,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $319,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   price $319,990 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-30
   days on market $324,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-29
    days on market $324,990 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-27
    days on market $324,990 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-06-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-06-17
    days on market $324,990 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-06-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 17 DOM
19. 2026-06-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 16 DOM
20. 2026-06-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 14 DOM
21. 2026-06-09
    days on market $324,990 Active 10 DOM
22. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 9 DOM
23. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,990 Active 8 DOM
24. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $324,990 Active 5 DOM
25. 2026-06-02
    listing id $346,849 Active 3 DOM
26. 2026-06-01
    days on market $346,849 Active 3 DOM
27. 2026-05-31
    days on market $346,849 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$11,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,870
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers ample space and a spa-inspired bath, making it an ideal choice for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting interior and exterior — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby Kindergarten Center Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18507 Oak Leaf Gap Dr, Crosby TX 77532Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-30
• Financial info: List price $346,849

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Spec home, Hamilton plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1861