4915 39th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1967 6,625 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a solid addition to your portfolio in Lubbock? 4915 39th Street is now tenant-occupied, offering immediate rental income from day one. With major updates already taken care of—including newer windows and a 2024 HVAC condensing unit—this property helps minimize upfront expenses while supporting long-term efficiency and lower maintenance concerns. Priced at $100,000, this is an attractive opportunity for investors seeking a stabilized asset with strong potential. The home has good foundational integrity, and with light cosmetic improvements over time, there's room to further enhance value and increase returns. If you're looking for a straightforward, income-producing property with upside, this one is worth a closer look. Reach out to get the details or schedule a showing.

Key facts

• Updated windows
• 6,625 sq ft lot
• Built 1967

Tags

• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED HVAC CONDENSING UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-8,858
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-4,816
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,278/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $851

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.10mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	14d	1	0.16mi
5105 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	21d	1	0.27mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	14d	1	0.32mi
5106 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$900	$1.07	21d	1	0.33mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	14d	1	0.35mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.40mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.42mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.44mi
2902 Vicksburg Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$710	$0.95	14d	3	0.52mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	14d	7	0.53mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	21d	1	0.57mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	44d	1	0.57mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	14d	1	0.63mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	14d	1	0.64mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	14d	9	0.70mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	21d	1	0.70mi
4705 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$742	$0.80	14d	5	0.71mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	21d	1	0.71mi
3506 Peoria Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	14d	1	0.77mi
5204 50th St Lubbock, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,150	$1.10	14d	2	0.77mi
5433 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	978	$800	$0.82	44d	1	0.77mi
4407 31st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	21d	1	0.79mi
4644 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$775	$0.93	14d	1	0.85mi
4638 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$749	$0.90	44d	1	0.86mi
4630 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$699	$0.84	44d	1	0.87mi
4626 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$775	$0.93	14d	1	0.88mi
4604 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$749	$0.90	44d	1	0.92mi
4602 54th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	764	$975	$1.28	14d	11	0.99mi
5430 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	730	$975	$1.34	14d	8	0.99mi
5401 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,099	$1.08	14d	11	1.00mi
5128 Aberdeen Ave Unit 206 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$915	$0.83	21d	1	1.02mi
5128 Aberdeen Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$915	$0.99	21d	9	1.02mi
4006 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$695	$0.87	44d	1	1.03mi
5202 Bangor Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1080	$987	$0.91	14d	11	1.04mi
3410 Nashville Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$675	$0.96	44d	1	1.06mi
3408 Nashville Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$700	$1.06	14d	1	1.08mi
5001 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,019	$1.43	14d	15	1.09mi
5714 Brownfield Dr Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	748	$699	$0.93	44d	1	1.13mi
5716 Brownfield Dr Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	748	$649	$0.87	14d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    historical $995
18. 2026-04-10
    listed $100,000 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Looking for a solid addition to your portfolio in Lubbock? 4915 39th Street is now tenant-occupied, offering immediate rental income from day one. With major updates already taken care of—including newer windows and a 2024 HVAC condensing unit—this property helps minimize upfront expenses while supporting long-term efficiency and lower maintenance concerns. Priced at $100,000, this is an attractive opportunity for investors seeking a stabilized asset with strong potential. The home has good foundational integrity, and with light cosmetic improvements over time, there's room to further enhance value and increase returns. If you're looking for a straightforward, income-producing property with upside, this one is worth a closer look. Reach out to get the details or schedule a showing.

19. 2026-04-07
    price $995
20. 2026-03-19
    price $1,025
21. 2026-02-21
    price $1,050
22. 2026-01-23
    price $1,085
23. 2026-01-14
    listed $1,050
24. 2025-12-22
    historical $1,050
25. 2025-10-25
    listed $1,050
26. 2025-08-29
    soldstatus Closed 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath with Central Heat and Air . Wood Vinyl Plank throughout entire home, neutral colors. Nice size living room. Ceilings fans in every bedroom. 2 closets in master bedroom. Fantastic rental $1000 per month and is leased through 11/30/2025.

27. 2025-08-29
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath with Central Heat and Air . Wood Vinyl Plank throughout entire home, neutral colors. Nice size living room. Ceilings fans in every bedroom. 2 closets in master bedroom. Fantastic rental $1000 per month and is leased through 11/30/2025.

28. 2025-07-30
    status Pending 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath with Central Heat and Air . Wood Vinyl Plank throughout entire home, neutral colors. Nice size living room. Ceilings fans in every bedroom. 2 closets in master bedroom. Fantastic rental $1000 per month and is leased through 11/30/2025.

29. 2025-07-24
    price $98,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath with Central Heat and Air . Wood Vinyl Plank throughout entire home, neutral colors. Nice size living room. Ceilings fans in every bedroom. 2 closets in master bedroom. Fantastic rental $1000 per month and is leased through 11/30/2025.

30. 2025-07-03
    price $99,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath with Central Heat and Air . Wood Vinyl Plank throughout entire home, neutral colors. Nice size living room. Ceilings fans in every bedroom. 2 closets in master bedroom. Fantastic rental $1000 per month and is leased through 11/30/2025.

31. 2025-06-09
    listed $104,000 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath with Central Heat and Air . Wood Vinyl Plank throughout entire home, neutral colors. Nice size living room. Ceilings fans in every bedroom. 2 closets in master bedroom. Fantastic rental $1000 per month and is leased through 11/30/2025.

32. 2016-05-27
    soldstatus
33. 2016-05-26
    soldstatus
34. 2016-05-13
    listed $59,995
35. 2000-06-16
    soldstatus
36. 1998-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,278
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Rental Removed $995 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-10 Listed $100,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $995 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $1,025 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $1,085 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-22 Rental Removed $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-25 Listed for Rent $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-29 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $98,000 LARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $99,000 LARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $104,000 LARMLS
• 2016-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-26 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2016-05-13 Listed $59,995 LARMLS
• 2000-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,278 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.