18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #206 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1984 41 ac lot $81/sqft · 29% below area Est $232k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Live the life you deserve! - including unlimited FREE golf, swimming pools, exercise room, RV Parking and more. This home shows pride of ownership and comes move in ready with a beautiful, carefree, front and backyard and a detached studio that can be used as a shop, craft room or whatever you can dream. The two large bedrooms each have its own bath, and one has a walk-in closet and separate outside entry. In addition to the spacious living room, the home has an equally large family room with a wet bar and direct access to the light and bright kitchen. It's a great floor plan! The screen porch is a favorite and creates a nice retreat. Skyline Ranch Country Club is for residents that are 55+

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Swimming pools
• Exercise room

Tags

• UNLIMITED FREE GOLF
• SWIMMING POOLS
• EXERCISE ROOM
• RV PARKING
• DETACHED STUDIO
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.78%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,746
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -28.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 200 Spc 200	0.00mi	2/2.0	2,038 (-0%)	11mo	$105,000	$52	91
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 151 Spc 151	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,064 (+1%)	12mo	$289,000	$140	83
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #203	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,784 (-12%)	1mo	$275,000	$154	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 89	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,770 (-13%)	2mo	$215,000	$121	76
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 68	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (-2%)	24mo	$245,000	$122	72
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 18 Spc 18	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,792 (-12%)	11mo	$285,000	$159	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #20	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,832 (-10%)	21mo	$110,000	$60	65
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 190 #190	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (+13%)	12mo	$347,000	$151	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $68,318
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $181,755
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $1,493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,587	-5% $1,540	+0% $1,493	+5% $1,447	+10% $1,400
Rent	-10% $1,245	-5% $1,369	+0% $1,493	+5% $1,617	+10% $1,741
Rate	-1.0pp $1,576	-0.5pp $1,535	base $1,493	+0.5pp $1,450	+1.0pp $1,407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $165,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-12
    historical
12. 2026-04-01
    price $165,000
13. 2026-03-23
    price $189,000
14. 2026-02-06
    price $199,000
15. 2025-11-19
    listed $210,000 Active
16. 2025-09-22
    historical
17. 2025-07-10
    price $229,900
18. 2025-02-03
    status Active
19. 2025-02-03
    price $269,000
20. 2025-02-02
    historical
21. 2024-08-26
    listed $285,000 Active
22. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus $193,300 Sold
23. 2023-08-30
    status Pending
24. 2023-08-15
    price $199,000
25. 2023-08-08
    price $260,000
26. 2023-07-27
    price $270,000
27. 2023-07-21
    price $275,000
28. 2023-07-06
    listed $285,000 Active
29. 2023-07-05
    historical $285,000
30. 2021-03-08
    soldstatus $153,000 Closed Sale
31. 2021-02-05
    status Pending Sale
32. 2020-11-07
    listed $159,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$646/yr (+$54/mo · 106.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,011
• − Management: −$3,011
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $16,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,874
• After-tax cash flow: $14,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $229,900 CRMLS
• 2025-02-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $269,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-26 Listed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-22 Sold (MLS) $193,300 SDMLS
• 2023-08-30 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-08-15 Price Changed $199,000 SDMLS
• 2023-08-08 Price Changed $260,000 SDMLS
• 2023-07-27 Price Changed $270,000 SDMLS
• 2023-07-21 Price Changed $275,000 SDMLS
• 2023-07-06 Listed $285,000 SDMLS
• 2023-07-05 Coming Soon $285,000 SDMLS
• 2021-03-08 Sold (MLS) $153,000 CRMLS
• 2021-02-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-11-07 Listed $159,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2013): $608 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.