1345 Mariposa Cir #5204 · Vineyards, FL 34105

$525,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,104 sqft · Condo public records · 184 Days on market

Built 2007 $545/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this one! Freshly painted 3+Den/2.5 Bath/2 Car Coach home located in Mariposa at Whippoorwill. All applliances remain including washer & dryer in separate laundry room. Many fine architectural details like arched doorways, tray ceilings and French Doors. Loads of storage and closets. Central and convenient location. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing. THIS PROPERTY IS INCLUDED IN THE "FIRST LOOK" MARKETING PERIOD!

Key facts

• Granite-clad kitchen
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• GRANITE-CLAD KITCHEN
• PRIVATE SCREENED LANAI
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Monthly HOA fee of $545; Annual recurring HOA fees total $6,540; One-time fees $150; HOA maintenance covers cable, trash removal, and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, sidewalks, and streetlights; Managed as a condo in a gated community; Complex has 180 units; 8 units in building; 2 units per floor; 2 total floors

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2+ parking spaces
• Security: Gated community; Entry keypad
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property in a low-rise (1-3) building; 2-story building; Rear exposure faces south; Located in the Whippoorwill development (Mariposa sub-condo)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Privacy wall; Sliding windows; Screened lanai/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Self-cleaning oven; Breakfast bar and eat-in kitchen; Breakfast room and formal dining options
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms with split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Marble flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Volume ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Den (study); Great room; Guest bath; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (washer/dryer hookup); Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $794 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $525k).
• Recommended offer: $462k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 55% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,689/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $177k; list at $525k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $462,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-46,399
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-22,084
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,689 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,197/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$545
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,195
• Net cashflow: $794

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,684

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,092	-5% $943	+0% $794	+5% $646	+10% $497
Rent	-10% $345	-5% $570	+0% $794	+5% $1,019	+10% $1,244
Rate	-1.0pp $1,059	-0.5pp $928	base $794	+0.5pp $658	+1.0pp $520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	22d	1	0.23mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	25d	1	0.23mi
1256 Carpazi Ct Unit 502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	15d	1	0.28mi
1256 Carpazi Ct #502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	25d	1	0.28mi
1299 Verde Dr Unit 1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$4,200	$2.41	15d	1	0.31mi
1303 Verde Dr Unit 1603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,500	$1.33	15d	1	0.33mi
12839 Carrington Cir Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2063	$6,500	$3.15	25d	1	0.36mi
6559 Monterey Pt Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2300	$9,000	$3.91	22d	1	0.45mi
6525 Monterey Pt Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$5,250	$2.29	15d	1	0.45mi
6548 Monterey Pt Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$6,000	$2.62	15d	1	0.48mi
13078 Pembroke Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2024	$6,500	$3.21	25d	1	0.50mi
12885 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2489	$10,000	$4.02	25d	1	0.51mi
12667 Biscayne Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2600	$8,500	$3.27	25d	1	0.55mi
12914 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$7,000	$4.07	25d	1	0.55mi
6542 Marbella Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2144	$6,250	$2.92	25d	1	0.56mi
6670 Marbella Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2439	$8,400	$3.44	25d	1	0.57mi
12848 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	4.0	2.5	2689	$6,000	$2.23	25d	1	0.58mi
12902 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$7,500	$3.57	25d	1	0.58mi
12832 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$5,250	$3.06	15d	1	0.61mi
4740 Stratford Ct #1603 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2686	$14,000	$5.21	25d	1	0.85mi
4752 Stratford Ct #1404 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2686	$8,500	$3.16	25d	1	0.86mi
3099 Lancaster Dr Unit 7-701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$10,000	$4.63	25d	1	1.10mi
104 Siena Way #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$7,000	$4.83	25d	1	1.14mi
106 Siena Way #1508 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	1.15mi
3255 Tamara Dr #4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,500	$1.74	15d	1	1.18mi
103 Tuscana Ct #1107 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1412	$5,000	$3.54	25d	1	1.18mi
155 Vintage Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$5,000	$3.33	15d	1	1.20mi
172 Vintage Cir #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$5,195	$2.93	15d	1	1.21mi
102 Tuscana Ct #901 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1631	$2,300	$1.41	25d	1	1.22mi
6025 Chardonnay Ln Unit 1Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,195	$1.55	25d	1	1.22mi
3268 Amanda Ln #3 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,350	$1.64	15d	1	1.25mi
5065 Kensington High St Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2661	$20,000	$7.52	25d	1	1.28mi
210 Vintage Cir Unit C401 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$6,500	$4.28	15d	1	1.28mi
200 Vintage Cir Unit D304 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,800	$1.88	15d	1	1.30mi
152 Napa Ridge Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1775	$7,000	$3.94	25d	1	1.36mi
224 Via Perignon Unit 5-4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	2085	$6,000	$2.88	22d	1	1.38mi
116 Fountain Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$4,500	$2.88	25d	1	1.39mi
5950 Almaden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$6,500	$3.69	25d	1	1.45mi
271 Perignon Pl Unit 16-1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $545 · $6,540/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $525,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $525,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $525,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $525,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $525,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $525,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $525,000 Active 163 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,197 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,358 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,161/yr (+$180/mo · 98.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$2,197
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,461
• − Management: −$5,461
• − HOA: −$6,540
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable income: $1,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $9,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vineyards

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #14101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+162.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $525,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $539,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $569,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-03-07 Sold (MLS) $177,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-02-16 Listed $179,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2010-08-27 Listed $199,900 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,197 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.