7453 Grabault Rd · Bastrop, LA 71220

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,701 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1978 1.04 ac lot $82/sqft · 12% below area Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four bedroom two full baths brick home on one acre in the country but close to town, barn, storage shed and very private call and see if you can qualify for 100% financing today.

Key facts

• Very private
• Barn
• Storage shed

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• ONE ACRE
• BARN
• STORAGE SHED
• VERY PRIVATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#425 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Morehouse Parish (town): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #83 of 98 in LA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Morehouse Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morehouse County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $139k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,115 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,704
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -3.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,744
• Equity at exit: $26,336

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,452
• Equity at exit: $21,881

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71220

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,091/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $139,000 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Four bedroom two full baths brick home on one acre in the country but close to town, barn, storage shed and very private call and see if you can qualify for 100% financing today.

19. 2026-01-14
    listed $155,000 Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Four bedroom two full baths brick home on one acre in the country but close to town, barn, storage shed and very private call and see if you can qualify for 100% financing today.

20. 2016-11-18
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,091
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$314
• After-tax cash flow: $1,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morehouse Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201110
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $30,482
• Composite: 11.46/100
• National rank: #9704
• State rank: #83 of 98 in LA

Livability — Bastrop

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #25547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,426

Population outlook (Morehouse County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,631 people
• By 2030: 22,114 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,203 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 16,698 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 11,998 · -49.2%
• By 2100: 8,622 · -63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 44% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Morehouse

• 2024 margin: R (+19.4) · D 39.7% · R 59.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -11.1pp · 2024: -19.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.4 2020: R+13.5 2016: R+11.4 2012: R+5.6 2008: R+11.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.10%
• Current HPI: 171.3272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+98.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $139,000 NELABOR
• 2026-01-14 Listed $155,000 NELABOR
• 2016-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,091 · +28.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.