Jefferson Plan · Haines City, FL 33844

$364,990

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a modern layout with an open-concept floorplan consisting of a stylish kitchen, dining room and family room on the first floor. A convenient bedroom is located toward the back of the home, perfect as a guest suite or home office. Five additional bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the luxurious owner's suite, surrounding a versatile loft space.

Key facts

• Versatile loft space
• Stylish kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $364,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $369,999.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $365k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,815/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,549 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,999
• List price: $364,990
• Delta: -1.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2483 Aveeno Ave	0.22mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,238 (-9%)	1mo	$354,890	$159	69
3881 Amers Loop	0.25mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,238 (-9%)	1mo	$345,890	$155	68
3889 Amers Loop	0.24mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,238 (-9%)	2mo	$333,390	$149	67
4818 Katrina Dr	0.57mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,451 (-0%)	2mo	$320,990	$131	66
5417 Willow Creek Dr	0.57mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,447 (-0%)	2mo	$369,900	$151	66
5725 Somerset Dr	0.61mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,447 (-0%)	2mo	$368,990	$151	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-86,225
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-122,441
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.8 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $369,990 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 52 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,550/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,237

Max offer price $321,851

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-205	+0% $-333	+5% $-461	+10% $-588
Rent	-10% $-555	-5% $-444	+0% $-333	+5% $-222	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-239	base $-333	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	119d	1	0.26mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	99d	1	0.31mi
2085 Doe Run Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2696	$3,400	$1.26	73d	1	1.26mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (modified 2026-05-22)
• Financial info: List price $364,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Jefferson planLocated at 2506 Aveeno Ave, Haines City, FL 33844
• Construction: Built as part of new construction inventory (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2458New construction plan home

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (standard for new construction plan)
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Jefferson)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-27
   days on market $364,990 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-08-26
   days on market $364,990 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-08-25
   days on market $364,990 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-08-24
   days on market $364,990 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-08-23
   days on market $364,990 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-08-22
   days on market $364,990 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-08-21
   days on market $364,990 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-08-20
   days on market $364,990 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-08-19
   days on market $364,990 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-08-18
    days on market $364,990 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-08-17
    days on market $364,990 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-08-16
    days on market $364,990 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-08-15
    days on market $364,990 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-08-14
    days on market $364,990 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-08-12
    days on market $364,990 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-08-11
    days on market $364,990 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-08-10
    days on market $364,990 Active 116 DOM
18. 2026-08-09
    days on market $364,990 Active 115 DOM
19. 2026-08-08
    days on market $364,990 Active 114 DOM
20. 2026-08-07
    days on market $364,990 Active 113 DOM
21. 2026-08-06
    days on market $364,990 Active 112 DOM
22. 2026-08-05
    days on market $364,990 Active 111 DOM
23. 2026-08-04
    days on market $364,990 Active 110 DOM
24. 2026-08-03
    days on market $364,990 Active 109 DOM
25. 2026-07-31
    days on market $364,990 Active 106 DOM
26. 2026-07-30
    days on market $364,990 Active 105 DOM
27. 2026-07-30
    days on market $364,990 Active 104 DOM
28. 2026-07-28
    days on market $364,990 Active 103 DOM
29. 2026-07-26
    days on market $364,990 Active 101 DOM
30. 2026-07-24
    days on market $364,990 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-07-23
    days on market $364,990 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-07-22
    days on market $364,990 Active 97 DOM
33. 2026-07-21
    days on market $364,990 Active 96 DOM
34. 2026-07-19
    days on market $364,990 Active 93 DOM
35. 2026-07-16
    days on market $364,990 Active 91 DOM
36. 2026-07-15
    days on market $364,990 Active 90 DOM
37. 2026-07-14
    days on market $364,990 Active 89 DOM
38. 2026-07-13
    days on market $364,990 Active 88 DOM
39. 2026-07-13
    days on market $364,990 Active 87 DOM
40. 2026-07-09
    days on market $364,990 Active 84 DOM
41. 2026-07-07
    days on market $364,990 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-07-06
    days on market $364,990 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-07-05
    days on market $364,990 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-07-03
    days on market $364,990 Active 78 DOM
45. 2026-07-02
    days on market $364,990 Active 77 DOM
46. 2026-07-01
    days on market $364,990 Active 76 DOM
47. 2026-06-30
    days on market $364,990 Active 75 DOM
48. 2026-06-29
    days on market $364,990 Active 74 DOM
49. 2026-06-28
    days on market $364,990 Active 73 DOM
50. 2026-06-28
    days on market $364,990 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$5,550
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,703
• − Management: −$2,703
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$10,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,522
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with a good layout and well-maintained features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (modified 2026-05-22)
• Financial info: List price $364,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Jefferson planLocated at 2506 Aveeno Ave, Haines City, FL 33844
• Construction: Built as part of new construction inventory (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2458New construction plan home

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (standard for new construction plan)
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Jefferson)