12174 Brae Way · Dade City, FL 33525

$301,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $165/sqft · 13% below area Est $347k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-PLAN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-431/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1219 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 90d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,592/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,194 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,792
• List price: $301,500
• Delta: -13.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12053 Sabal Lee Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	1mo	$345,900	$190	91
11119 Brae Way	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	6mo	$315,900	$173	88
12038 Brae Way	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	13mo	$305,150	$167	82
12004 Brae Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	15mo	$329,900	$181	80
11974 Brae Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	16mo	$334,900	$184	77
11938 Brae Way	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	16mo	$344,900	$189	75
11784 Brae Way	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	17mo	$314,000	$168	61
11754 Brae Way	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	17mo	$314,900	$168	60
11737 Brae Way	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	16mo	$324,900	$173	59
11694 Brae Way	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	15mo	$331,900	$177	58
11673 Brae Way	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	14mo	$303,900	$162	58
11662 Brae Way	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	15mo	$319,000	$170	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-51,055
• Equity at exit: $44,955

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,034
• Equity at exit: $26,068

Cash invested: $84,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active
• Months of supply: 198.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $338,995 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 23 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1219
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,581
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,522/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,637

Max offer price $296,297

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $68	+0% $-36	+5% $-140	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-138	+0% $-36	+5% $66	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $41	base $-36	+0.5pp $-114	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,375
• Closing costs: $9,045
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11938 Brae Way Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,400	$1.32	90d	1	0.22mi
11737 Noble Blossom Loop Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,650	$1.14	107d	1	0.39mi
11709 Noble Blossom Loop Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,650	$1.14	90d	1	0.39mi
11413 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,700	$1.16	165d	1	0.40mi
11522 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	55d	1	0.51mi
11522 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$1,900	$0.82	17d	1	0.51mi
28882 Renda Ln San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,390	$2.33	1d	16	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12174 Brae Way, Dade City, FL 33525Listing last modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $343,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Celeste planLiving area approximately 1,824

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-20
   days on market $301,500 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-09-19
   days on market $301,500 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-09-18
   price $301,500 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $301,250 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $301,250 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-09-15
   pricedays on market $305,750 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-09-13
   days on market $305,250 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-09-12
   days on market $305,250 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-09-11
   pricedays on market $305,250 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-09-05
    days on market $305,150 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-09-04
    days on market $305,150 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $305,150 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-08-31
    days on market $314,650 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-08-30
    days on market $314,650 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-08-29
    days on market $314,650 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-08-28
    days on market $314,650 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-08-26
    days on market $314,650 Active 126 DOM
18. 2026-08-25
    price $314,650 Active 125 DOM
19. 2026-08-25
    days on market $309,650 Active 125 DOM
20. 2026-08-24
    days on market $309,650 Active 124 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    pricedays on market $309,650 Active 123 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $312,400 Active 122 DOM
23. 2026-08-20
    days on market $312,400 Active 120 DOM
24. 2026-08-19
    days on market $312,400 Active 119 DOM
25. 2026-08-18
    days on market $312,400 Active 118 DOM
26. 2026-08-17
    days on market $312,400 Active 117 DOM
27. 2026-08-16
    days on market $312,400 Active 116 DOM
28. 2026-08-15
    days on market $312,400 Active 115 DOM
29. 2026-08-14
    days on market $312,400 Active 114 DOM
30. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $312,400 Active 113 DOM
31. 2026-08-12
    days on market $320,400 Active 112 DOM
32. 2026-08-11
    days on market $320,400 Active 111 DOM
33. 2026-08-10
    days on market $320,400 Active 110 DOM
34. 2026-08-09
    days on market $320,400 Active 109 DOM
35. 2026-08-08
    days on market $320,400 Active 108 DOM
36. 2026-08-06
    days on market $320,400 Active 106 DOM
37. 2026-08-05
    days on market $320,400 Active 105 DOM
38. 2026-08-04
    days on market $320,400 Active 104 DOM
39. 2026-08-03
    days on market $320,400 Active 103 DOM
40. 2026-07-31
    days on market $320,400 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $320,400 Active 98 DOM
42. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $319,900 Active 97 DOM
43. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $319,400 Active 95 DOM
44. 2026-07-24
    days on market $318,900 Active 93 DOM
45. 2026-07-23
    days on market $318,900 Active 92 DOM
46. 2026-07-22
    days on market $318,900 Active 91 DOM
47. 2026-07-21
    days on market $318,900 Active 90 DOM
48. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on market $318,900 Active 89 DOM
49. 2026-07-18
    days on market $318,400 Active 86 DOM
50. 2026-07-16
    days on market $318,400 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,889
• − Property taxes: −$4,522
• − Insurance: −$1,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − Depreciation: −$8,771
• Taxable loss: −$5,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,335
• After-tax cash flow: $904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,120–$27,360 screening

This modern single-story home is in good condition with a good curb appeal and interior finish. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary San Antonio Elementary School D+ FL #1,055/2,144 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Pasco Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12174 Brae Way, Dade City, FL 33525Listing last modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $343,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Celeste planLiving area approximately 1,824