9850 Richwood Ln · Jasmine Estates, FL 34668

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 894 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1979 5,100 sqft lot Est $200k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A clean cool relaxing retreat awaits you behind these doors. Newly renovated w/ tile, paint, roof, 3 ton air unit and screened enclosed porch.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Major improvements
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• REGENCY PARK COMMUNITY
• NO HOA
• RECENT UPDATES
• MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-518/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Jasmine Estates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,074 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,256
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9637 Marlinton Ln	0.22mi	2/1.0	888 (-1%)	2mo	$125,000	$141	87
8025 Durham Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0	888 (-1%)	2mo	$200,000	$225	75
8425 Redfield Dr	0.43mi	2/1.0	872 (-2%)	3mo	$210,000	$241	74
9829 Crofton Ln	0.36mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	3mo	$215,000	$256	71
9842 Richwood Ln	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+14%)	2mo	$230,000	$225	70
9430 Gray Fox Ln	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+5%)	2mo	$200,000	$214	66
8434 Luray Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	846 (-5%)	3mo	$168,000	$199	66
9426 Glen Moor Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0	898 (+0%)	1mo	$200,000	$223	62
10330 White Cedar St	0.52mi	2/2.0	987 (+10%)	5mo	$210,000	$213	51
9308 Wolcott Ln	0.63mi	2/2.0	990 (+11%)	2mo	$222,000	$224	47
8215 Autumn Oak Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+12%)	3mo	$180,000	$180	45
9147 Richwood Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0	990 (+11%)	4mo	$250,000	$253	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-37,986
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,829
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,770/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,725

Max offer price $192,379

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8019 Portage Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$2,000	$1.86	16d	1	0.13mi
9615 Gray Fox Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,550	$2.08	3d	1	0.29mi
8151 Hixton Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,699	$1.57	16d	1	0.38mi
8422 Paxton Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,800	$2.42	24d	1	0.40mi
10225 Gardenia Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,495	$1.43	14d	1	0.42mi
10303 Gardenia Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,950	$1.85	24d	1	0.46mi
8437 Luray Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,595	$1.54	4d	1	0.48mi
8247 Saybrook Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	24d	1	0.49mi
9310 Whitman Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	980	$1,350	$1.38	11d	1	0.60mi
10502 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	24d	1	0.60mi
8026 Colrain Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,545	$1.43	24d	1	0.61mi
9300 Whitman Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	920	$1,695	$1.84	24d	1	0.62mi
7839 Canna Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,450	$1.32	11d	1	0.66mi
10401 Oleander Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	887	$1,250	$1.41	24d	1	0.72mi
7325 Ivanhoe Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,800	$1.83	11d	1	0.73mi
7808 Talisman Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1063	$2,100	$1.98	24d	1	0.74mi
9103 Westby Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,995	$2.38	24d	1	0.81mi
10802 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	24d	1	0.82mi
9202 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	24d	1	0.84mi
9202 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	14d	1	0.84mi
7040 Brentwood Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,600	$1.82	20d	1	0.95mi
8940 Miguel Pl Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,290	$1.79	2d	10	0.97mi
7438 Coventry Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	12d	1	1.02mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	11d	1	1.07mi
6935 Twilite Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,450	$1.41	16d	1	1.14mi
7110 Tudor Ln Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	676	$1,310	$1.94	2d	1	1.23mi
7110 Tudor Ln Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	676	$1,310	$1.94	24d	1	1.23mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	1.29mi
7741 Forest Trl #3 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,500	$1.49	24d	1	1.33mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	20d	1	1.39mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	17d	1	1.46mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	24d	1	1.47mi
9035 Cochise Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1095	$1,395	$1.27	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-25
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 2024-11-04
   historical
4. 2024-10-28
   price $175,000
5. 2024-10-21
   price $190,000
6. 2024-10-18
   soldstatus $140,000
7. 2024-10-17
   listed $195,000 Active
8. 2014-09-23
   soldstatus $61,000
9. 2009-09-16
   soldstatus $70,000
10. 2007-09-04
    soldstatus $57,000 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    A clean cool relaxing retreat awaits you behind these doors. Newly renovated w/ tile, paint, roof, 3 ton air unit and screened enclosed porch.

11. 2007-05-15
    listed $75,000 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    A clean cool relaxing retreat awaits you behind these doors. Newly renovated w/ tile, paint, roof, 3 ton air unit and screened enclosed porch.

12. 2001-01-16
    soldstatus $42,500
13. 1996-12-31
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,770
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$948
• After-tax cash flow: $430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasmine Estates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasmine Estates, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-17 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-04 Sold (MLS) $57,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-15 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1996-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,770 · +364.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.