Camden Plan · Fruit Cove, FL 32092

$339,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,603 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This townhome unit has an open first floor with a spacious kitchen and great room. Upstairs secondary bedrooms have direct access to the full bath. Primary suite has an oversized walk-in closet, standing shower and dual sinks in the bath.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Spacious kitchen
• Great room

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• STANDING SHOWER
• DUAL SINKS

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $467,121.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Timberlin Creek Elementary School (math 81% / reading 85%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,311 students, 9% FRL); Switzerland Point Middle School (math 80% / reading 72%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 1,430 students, 5% FRL); Bartram Trail High School (math 68% / reading 75%, grade B+, #49 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 2,493 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1335 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,686 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.23%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $467,121
• List price: $339,990
• Delta: -27.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
73 Bluebonnet Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+4%)	0mo	$352,500	$212	61
100 Alston Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+4%)	2mo	$380,000	$227	60
34 Gilchrist Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+0%)	11mo	$374,500	$233	56
39 Gilchrist Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+4%)	6mo	$375,000	$224	52
251 Windswept Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+12%)	2mo	$340,000	$190	51
48 Gilchrist Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+4%)	9mo	$392,000	$234	51
130 Alston Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+4%)	12mo	$426,600	$255	51
237 Windswept Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+12%)	4mo	$420,000	$235	49
47 Buffalo Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,798 (+12%)	1mo	$441,990	$246	48
56 Gilchrist Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+9%)	4mo	$390,000	$223	48
26 Gilchrist Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+12%)	4mo	$390,000	$217	42
205 Windswept Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,804 (+12%)	12mo	$440,000	$244	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-160,858
• Equity at exit: $69,649

10-year hold

• IRR: -85.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.05×
• Total profit: $-268,334
• Equity at exit: $40,388

Cash invested: $130,794 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32092

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1335
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,450
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$584 /mo · $7,007/yr
• Insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-1,224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,086

Max offer price $289,999

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-901	-5% $-1,063	+0% $-1,224	+5% $-1,385	+10% $-1,547
Rent	-10% $-1,424	-5% $-1,324	+0% $-1,224	+5% $-1,124	+10% $-1,024
Rate	-1.0pp $-989	-0.5pp $-1,105	base $-1,224	+0.5pp $-1,345	+1.0pp $-1,468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,780
• Closing costs: $14,014
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
78 Gaston Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1635	$2,250	$1.38	25d	1	0.05mi
380 Belfort Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,500	$1.40	25d	1	0.46mi
413 Rosemont Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,125	$1.19	25d	1	0.49mi
36 Viceroy Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1631	$2,850	$1.75	19d	1	0.75mi
18 Longtail Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1714	$3,142	$1.83	3d	9	0.89mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,990 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,990 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,990 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,990 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,990 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,990 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,990 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,990 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,990 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,990 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,990 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $344,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This townhome unit has an open first floor with a spacious kitchen and great room. Upstairs secondary bedrooms have direct access to the full bath. Primary suite has an oversized walk-in closet, standing shower and dual sinks in the bath.

16. 2026-04-10
    price $347,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This townhome unit has an open first floor with a spacious kitchen and great room. Upstairs secondary bedrooms have direct access to the full bath. Primary suite has an oversized walk-in closet, standing shower and dual sinks in the bath.

17. 2026-03-12
    price $349,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This townhome unit has an open first floor with a spacious kitchen and great room. Upstairs secondary bedrooms have direct access to the full bath. Primary suite has an oversized walk-in closet, standing shower and dual sinks in the bath.

18. 2026-03-04
    price $350,990 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This townhome unit has an open first floor with a spacious kitchen and great room. Upstairs secondary bedrooms have direct access to the full bath. Primary suite has an oversized walk-in closet, standing shower and dual sinks in the bath.

19. 2026-02-10
    listed $352,990 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This townhome unit has an open first floor with a spacious kitchen and great room. Upstairs secondary bedrooms have direct access to the full bath. Primary suite has an oversized walk-in closet, standing shower and dual sinks in the bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,166
• − Property taxes: −$7,007
• − Insurance: −$2,336
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,435
• − Management: −$2,435
• − Depreciation: −$13,589
• Taxable loss: −$23,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,646
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fruit Cove

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #8490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 53,071
• Household income: $131,020
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 706.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.26%
• Current HPI: 259.732
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $347,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Listed $352,990 Zillow