5064 Northland Ave · St. Louis, MO 63113

$40,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,416 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1915 4,351 sqft lot Est $60k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Attention investors! Don't miss this opportunity to snag a historic two-family on a great block. The lower level unit is in great shape, with the upper level unit waiting for the right owner to put their finishing touches and complete the renovation of this historic property.

Key facts

• Lower level unit
• Historic two-family
• Upper level unit

Tags

• HISTORIC TWO-FAMILY
• LOWER LEVEL UNIT
• UPPER LEVEL UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above grade finished area reported as 2,416 (source: other)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas connected; Phone available; Water available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: City lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 2 bedrooms on the main level; 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.9% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lexington Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 274 students, 99% FRL); Sumner High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 264 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $858 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.04%
• DSCR: 4.92
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,400
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5052 Northland Ave	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,444 (+1%)	12mo	$18,000	$7	87
5144 Wabada Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,304 (-5%)	9mo	$93,500	$41	77
4939 Saint Louis Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,350 (-3%)	14mo	$15,000	$6	69
5120 Lexington Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,250 (-7%)	2mo	$115,000	$51	65
4810 Saint Louis Ave Ave	0.46mi	4/4.0	2,444 (+1%)	8mo	$60,000	$25	62
5144 Palm St	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,280 (-6%)	8mo	$39,900	$18	59
4738 Greer Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,400 (-1%)	17mo	$119,900	$50	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $47,309
• Equity at exit: $7,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.81×
• Total profit: $109,891
• Equity at exit: $6,166

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63113

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $318

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5223 Ashland Ave Unit 2 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2200	$1,450	$0.66	43d	1	0.45mi
5345 Wells Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2254	$1,295	$0.57	43d	1	0.63mi
5096 Minerva Ave Unit C St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1800	$1,395	$0.78	43d	1	0.69mi
5760 Theodosia Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1702	$1,420	$0.83	23d	1	1.03mi
4247 Maffitt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $40,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $298 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$90/yr (+$8/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,349
• After-tax cash flow: $7,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 11,610

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% White 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 107.1335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $298 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.