126 Deer Run · Hemlock Farms, PA 18337

$119,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 532 sqft · Land · 28 Days on market

Built 2024 4,792 sqft lot $231/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A MUST SEE. Probably the most luxurious structure in Lake Adventure. Every modern convenience and practically brand new. Double loft for all the children. Tons of storage space.

Key facts

• Firepit
• Bonus sunroom
• Storage shed

Tags

• 50 AMP ELECTRIC SERVICE
• DOUBLE LOFT SLEEPING AREAS
• BONUS SUNROOM
• STORAGE SHED
• FIREPIT
• OUTDOOR BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoning: Commercial
• Financial info: Annual tax amount approximately $240.91
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $2,775 and a one-time fee of $1,400 (equivalent to about $231.25/month)

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property listed as Vacation RV/Trailer
• Construction: 560 total square feet (532 above grade finished)
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 45' x 112' x 45' x 112'; Lot of about 0.11 acres; Located in the Lake Adventure subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.11%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,086
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,516
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18337

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$231
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $231 · $2,772/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $119,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $124,900 Active
17. 2025-09-03
    soldstatus $109,000 Closed 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    A MUST SEE. Probably the most luxurious structure in Lake Adventure. Every modern convenience and practically brand new. Double loft for all the children. Tons of storage space.

18. 2025-08-06
    status Pending 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    A MUST SEE. Probably the most luxurious structure in Lake Adventure. Every modern convenience and practically brand new. Double loft for all the children. Tons of storage space.

19. 2025-07-31
    listed $109,000 Active 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    A MUST SEE. Probably the most luxurious structure in Lake Adventure. Every modern convenience and practically brand new. Double loft for all the children. Tons of storage space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − HOA: −$2,772
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$30
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7
• After-tax cash flow: $1,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pike County · 15,799 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,799
• Household income: $93,149
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.81%
• Current HPI: 194.0604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+14.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $124,900 PWMLS
• 2025-09-03 Sold (MLS) $109,000 PWMLS
• 2025-08-06 Pending — PWMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $109,000 PWMLS