473 Mills · Lakehills, TX 78063

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1985 3.24 ac lot $59/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision to life, Handy-man's Special with this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 3.24 unrestricted acres dotted with beautiful mature oak trees. The property features a private well, septic system, and a barn, offering endless possibilities for renovation, expansion, or country living dreams. Tucked away in a peaceful, quiet setting, yet conveniently located near Bandera, Pipe Creek, and San Antonio, this property is perfect for those seeking space, freedom, and potential-all wrapped in classic Hill Country charm.

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Barn
• Private well

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• BARN
• UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• MATURE OAK TREES
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.3% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.36%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $447,106
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -72.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
450 Mills	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (-10%)	3mo	$230,000	$121	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,672
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $36,431
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,376/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-05-14
    price $124,900 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Bring your vision to life, Handy-man's Special with this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 3.24 unrestricted acres dotted with beautiful mature oak trees. The property features a private well, septic system, and a barn, offering endless possibilities for renovation, expansion, or country living dreams. Tucked away in a peaceful, quiet setting, yet conveniently located near Bandera, Pipe Creek, and San Antonio, this property is perfect for those seeking space, freedom, and potential-all wrapped in classic Hill Country charm.

14. 2026-03-24
    price $159,900 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Bring your vision to life, Handy-man's Special with this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 3.24 unrestricted acres dotted with beautiful mature oak trees. The property features a private well, septic system, and a barn, offering endless possibilities for renovation, expansion, or country living dreams. Tucked away in a peaceful, quiet setting, yet conveniently located near Bandera, Pipe Creek, and San Antonio, this property is perfect for those seeking space, freedom, and potential-all wrapped in classic Hill Country charm.

15. 2025-12-27
    listed $199,999 New 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Bring your vision to life, Handy-man's Special with this 5-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 3.24 unrestricted acres dotted with beautiful mature oak trees. The property features a private well, septic system, and a barn, offering endless possibilities for renovation, expansion, or country living dreams. Tucked away in a peaceful, quiet setting, yet conveniently located near Bandera, Pipe Creek, and San Antonio, this property is perfect for those seeking space, freedom, and potential-all wrapped in classic Hill Country charm.

16. 2021-11-05
    historical
17. 2021-10-14
    listed $150,000 New
18. 2018-10-03
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2018-09-28
    status Pending
20. 2018-08-01
    price $184,000
21. 2018-06-08
    price $189,000
22. 2018-05-11
    price $199,000
23. 2018-04-07
    listed $225,000 New
24. 2011-06-01
    soldstatus
25. 2011-01-05
    historical
26. 2010-12-08
    listed $159,900
27. 2010-09-24
    historical
28. 2009-11-19
    listed $159,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,376 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,376 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$3,376
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $2,951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$708
• After-tax cash flow: $3,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $124,900 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $159,900 LERA
• 2025-12-27 Listed $199,999 LERA
• 2021-11-05 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2021-10-14 Listed $150,000 LERA
• 2018-10-03 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-09-28 Pending — LERA
• 2018-08-01 Price Changed $184,000 LERA
• 2018-06-08 Price Changed $189,000 LERA
• 2018-05-11 Price Changed $199,000 LERA
• 2018-04-07 Listed $225,000 LERA
• 2011-06-01 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2011-01-05 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2010-12-08 Listed $159,900 LERA
• 2010-09-24 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2009-11-19 Listed $159,500 LERA

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,376 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.