551 Summit Trl #77 · Granby, CO 80446

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Manufactured · 170 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2022 Good condition $180/sqft · 10% below area Est $277k · 10% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.9

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Smith Creek Crossing! Built in 2022 and offering approximately 1,387 square feet of comfortable living space, this move-in-ready home features an open floor plan, abundant natural light, and a versatile office/flex space perfect for working from home, hobbies, or additional guest accommodations. The spacious kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en suite bath, while two additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family and guests.

Key facts

• Built 2022
• Listed 169 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.5% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #300 of 966 statewide, top 32%, 331 students, 38% FRL); East Grand Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 290 students, 22% FRL); Middle Park High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #78 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 406 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 591 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,915 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,306
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -9.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
551 Summit Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,386 (0%)	13mo	$262,500	$189	87
551 Summit Trail Trl #78	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,386 (0%)	13mo	$262,500	$189	85
551 Summit Trail Trl #43	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (+5%)	2mo	$184,900	$127	80
551 Summit Trail Trl #10	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+15%)	4mo	$223,000	$139	64
255 Vista Ave	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+7%)	0mo	$515,000	$348	54
551 Summit Trail Trl #22	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+14%)	16mo	$255,000	$161	53
551 Summit Trl #142	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+16%)	20mo	$255,000	$159	51
1051 Summit Trl Unit V05	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-11%)	11mo	$329,500	$267	42
1051 Summit Trl Unit V20	0.86mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,437 (+4%)	14mo	$345,000	$240	42
1051 Summit Trl Unit V30	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-11%)	13mo	$333,000	$270	40
1051 Summit Trl Unit V36	0.86mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-11%)	2mo	$319,000	$259	40
280 Garnet Ave	1.46mi	3/1.0	1,204 (-13%)	13mo	$525,000	$436	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-51,728
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-59,206
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $234,998 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 190 d
• This list price: 78% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +35.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,345

Max offer price $224,131

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-92	+0% $-178	+5% $-264	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-262	+0% $-178	+5% $-94	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-52	-0.5pp $-115	base $-178	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association membershipMonthly association fee of $826Community amenities include trash service, spa/hot tub, storage, fitness center, and snow removalLand is leased with a monthly lease payment of $826

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service on property
• Home design: Manufactured homeOne level
• Exterior features: Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalRange / OvenRefrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: Living room fireplaceDishwasherDisposalRange / OvenRefrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer / Dryer includedWasher hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $249,900 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $249,900 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-11-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-10-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-10-30
   days on market $249,900 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-10-29
   days on market $249,900 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-10-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-10-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-10-26
    days on market $249,900 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $249,900 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-10-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-10-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-10-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-10-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-10-20
    days on market $249,900 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-10-19
    days on market $249,900 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-10-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-10-17
    days on market $249,900 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-10-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-10-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-10-14
    days on market $249,900 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-10-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 144 DOM
26. 2026-10-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 143 DOM
27. 2026-10-11
    days on market $249,900 Active 142 DOM
28. 2026-10-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 141 DOM
29. 2026-10-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-10-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-10-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 138 DOM
32. 2026-10-06
    days on market $249,900 Active 137 DOM
33. 2026-10-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 136 DOM
34. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 135 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 134 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 133 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 132 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 131 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $249,900 Active 130 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 129 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 128 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $249,900 Active 126 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 125 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 124 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 123 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 122 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $249,900 Active 121 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $249,900 Active 120 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $249,900 Active 118 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$2,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
• − Management: −$2,034
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$6,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $-599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,930–$20,790 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace outdated light fixtures — Modern lighting can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Granby Elementary School F CO #300/966 Nat'l #17,502/41,679 Middle East Grand Middle School F CO #84/270 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Middle Park High School C- CO #78/381 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 14,498 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association membershipMonthly association fee of $826Community amenities include trash service, spa/hot tub, storage, fitness center, and snow removalLand is leased with a monthly lease payment of $826

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service on property
• Home design: Manufactured homeOne level
• Exterior features: Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalRange / OvenRefrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: Living room fireplaceDishwasherDisposalRange / OvenRefrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer / Dryer includedWasher hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $258,500 GCAR
• 2025-09-15 Listed $264,000 GCAR