2831 Belmont Dr · Ocean Springs, MS 39564

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1980 0.30 ac lot Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nature at your grasp! Enjoy your morning coffee listening to the birds cirp from one of 2 outside decks/porches, or stay inside and observe nature from your sunporch. This unique one-or-a-kind home is located on a quiet cul-de-sac near Pecan Park Elementary School. Open contemporary floorplan, rustic interior, must see to appreciate.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Brick fireplace
• Lush landscaping

Tags

• GULF ISLANDS NATIONAL SEASHORE
• MATURE TREES
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• NATIVE GREENERY
• WOOD FLOORING
• BRICK FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Biking trails; Hiking/walking trails; Park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Driveway; Concrete parking surfaces; Total 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Fixer condition; Wood siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Porch; Shed(s); Chain link and wood fencing; Landscaped lot with many trees; Sloped lot; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Free-standing electric oven; Ice maker; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Decorative fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MS, #420 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Park Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #27 of 375 statewide, top 8%, 530 students, 99% FRL); Ocean Springs Middle School (math 66% / reading 61%, grade B+, #3 of 179 statewide, top 2%, 967 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,768 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,710
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Leigh Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+4%)	22mo	$159,900	$131	73
118 Barbara Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+11%)	2mo	$215,000	$164	68
309 Jamaica Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+13%)	10mo	$249,999	$188	62
121 Beverly Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-9%)	7mo	$175,500	$165	56
232 Woodland Cir	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-5%)	0mo	$170,000	$152	56
2507 Ridgewood Rd	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,304 (+11%)	6mo	$249,900	$192	49
2501 Havard Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,211 (+3%)	14mo	$189,000	$156	47
201 Hunter Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-15%)	14mo	$189,000	$189	45
112 Myrtle Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-11%)	10mo	$189,000	$182	44
210 Linda Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,270 (+8%)	18mo	$259,200	$204	34
221 Woodland Cir	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+11%)	19mo	$205,000	$158	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-43,196
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-59,717
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,106/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,086

Max offer price $177,768

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
237 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1295	$2,150	$1.66	13d	1	0.20mi
230 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	43d	1	0.24mi
230 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,850	$1.34	13d	1	0.24mi
422 Whispering Pine Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,795	$1.67	13d	1	0.32mi
246 Woodland Cir Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	1.0	984	$1,475	$1.50	43d	1	0.81mi
212 Maple Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,475	$1.35	13d	1	0.83mi
600 Bechtel Blvd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	944	$1,500	$1.59	13d	1	1.03mi
107 Elliott Pl Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	1.0	1148	$1,695	$1.48	21d	1	1.03mi
2 Fleetwood Pl Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	1.0	912	$2,000	$2.19	43d	1	1.09mi
2501 Bienville Blvd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	43d	1	1.11mi
2501 Bienville Blvd Unit 432 Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1095	$2,300	$2.10	43d	1	1.15mi
111 Armand Oaks Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	1.18mi
3500 Groveland Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1173	$1,750	$1.49	13d	1	1.24mi
623 Camellia Pointe Blvd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1333	$2,200	$1.65	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $199,500 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,500 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,500 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,500 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,500 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,500 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,500 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,500 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $199,500 Active
17. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus
18. 2021-04-12
    soldstatus 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Nature at your grasp! Enjoy your morning coffee listening to the birds cirp from one of 2 outside decks/porches, or stay inside and observe nature from your sunporch. This unique one-or-a-kind home is located on a quiet cul-de-sac near Pecan Park Elementary School. Open contemporary floorplan, rustic interior, must see to appreciate.

19. 2020-11-18
    listed $143,777 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Nature at your grasp! Enjoy your morning coffee listening to the birds cirp from one of 2 outside decks/porches, or stay inside and observe nature from your sunporch. This unique one-or-a-kind home is located on a quiet cul-de-sac near Pecan Park Elementary School. Open contemporary floorplan, rustic interior, must see to appreciate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$470/yr (+$39/mo · 42.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$1,106
• − Insurance: −$6,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$4,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $-338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ocean Springs

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #420

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Springs, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 43,240
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+38.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $199,500 MLSU
• 2021-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-12 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-11-18 Listed $143,777 MLSU

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,106 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.