138 Hornet St · Elgin, TX 78621

$311,450

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot Est $321k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

The one-story Laurel 2 plan was perfectly designed for modern living. A welcoming open layout lies at the heart of the home, showcasing a sunlit great room, a dining area, and a large kitchen with a wraparound counter, a center island, and a walk-in pantry. The inviting primary suite is adjacent, boasting a large walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two secondary bedrooms each offer their own walk-in closet. Options Include: Covered patio Stoop Fireplace in great room Tub with shower in lieu of walk-in shower at primary bath

Key facts

• One story
• Wraparound counter
• Open layout

Tags

• ONE STORY
• OPEN LAYOUT
• SUNLIT GREAT ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• WRAPAROUND COUNTER
• CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 138 Hornet St, Elgin TX 78621; Last updated Jun 13, 2026
• Financial info: List price $311,450

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (spec); Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,698

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Laurel 2 plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-551 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $209,326 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.58%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,922
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
437 Lucky Ave	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,648 (-3%)	2mo	$300,490	$182	79
140 Tolo Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-12%)	0mo	$253,990	$171	76
150 Tolo Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-12%)	1mo	$284,990	$192	75
153 Tolo Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-13%)	2mo	$299,990	$202	73
445 Lucky Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-12%)	2mo	$276,990	$186	73
435 Lucky Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (-10%)	1mo	$299,490	$197	71
200 Hidalgo Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (+7%)	3mo	$321,770	$177	64
305 Bendecido Loop	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,674 (-1%)	3mo	$278,975	$167	63
147 Two Bits Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+5%)	3mo	$299,840	$168	60
159 Two Bits Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-10%)	2mo	$288,990	$189	56
143 Two Bits Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-10%)	2mo	$289,990	$189	55
123 Two Bits Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-10%)	1mo	$298,925	$195	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $134,867
• Equity at exit: $280,579

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $425,385
• Equity at exit: $605,079

Cash invested: $87,206 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,633
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,672/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,790

Max offer price $231,765

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-335	-5% $-443	+0% $-551	+5% $-658	+10% $-766
Rent	-10% $-716	-5% $-633	+0% $-551	+5% $-468	+10% $-385
Rate	-1.0pp $-394	-0.5pp $-471	base $-551	+0.5pp $-631	+1.0pp $-713

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,862
• Closing costs: $9,344
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	19d	1	0.29mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	5d	1	0.51mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	0.80mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	5d	1	0.80mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.92mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	45d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $311,450 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $311,450 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $311,450 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $311,450 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,450 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 530-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $311,450 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,446
• − Property taxes: −$4,672
• − Insurance: −$1,557
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$9,060
• Taxable loss: −$12,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,942
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B