14295 Walker Ln · Harborton, VA 23420

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1965 $46/sqft · 29% below area Est $56k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property sold as-is where is with no repairs made by the seller. Will not qualify for financing. Cash only. All personal belongings convey with the sale of the property in their current state as of the closing date. Drive by only preferred due to condition of the property. Value is in the land. Seller unsure of functionality of any major systems of the home.

Key facts

• Built 1965
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($904 rent vs $40k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#565 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.80%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,208
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -28.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $38,226
• Equity at exit: $26,498

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.25×
• Total profit: $92,357
• Equity at exit: $49,267

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23420

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $272/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $399

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $410	+0% $398	+5% $387	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $363	+0% $398	+5% $434	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $408	base $398	+0.5pp $388	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Under Contract 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   Property sold as-is where is with no repairs made by the seller. Will not qualify for financing. Cash only. All personal belongings convey with the sale of the property in their current state as of the closing date. Drive by only preferred due to condition of the property. Value is in the land. Seller unsure of functionality of any major systems of the home.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $40,000 Active 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   Property sold as-is where is with no repairs made by the seller. Will not qualify for financing. Cash only. All personal belongings convey with the sale of the property in their current state as of the closing date. Drive by only preferred due to condition of the property. Value is in the land. Seller unsure of functionality of any major systems of the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $272 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$272
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$867
• − Management: −$867
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,064
• After-tax cash flow: $3,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Harborton

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #26643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harborton, VA
• City population: 87
• Population (ZIP): 2,686

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 34% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.53%
• Current HPI: 167.0494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $40,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $272 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.