420 Prior Rd · Clayville, NY 13322

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2006 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained 2 Bed/2 Bathroom manufactured home with a full acre of level, usable land. Conveniently accessible entry through the back door and covered porch on the front. Detached garage with power and bonus office space/room add tons of potential for a variety of uses. Enjoy extra storage with extra sheds on the property as well.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built previously (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot approximately 1 acre (200 x 210)

Interior

• Kitchen: See remarks for kitchen/appliance details
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric heating
• Interior features: Main-level bedroom; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Water heater included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#954 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mount Markham Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #393 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mount Markham Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 449 students, 55% FRL); Mount Markham Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #503 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 304 students, 52% FRL); Mount Markham Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 314 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $110,299 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $26,176
• Equity at exit: $80,622

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $84,843
• Equity at exit: $137,880

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13322

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,218

Max offer price $128,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-50	+0% $-91	+5% $-132	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-134	+0% $-91	+5% $-47	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-54	base $-91	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   remarks 336-char remark
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   remarks 136-char remark
6. 2026-06-17
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,073 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 22.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,059
• − Management: −$1,059
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $-215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Markham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630930
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,456
• Composite: 42.3/100
• National rank: #3262
• State rank: #393 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clayville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #954
• US rank: #18696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,059

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Current HPI: 314.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $145,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,696 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.