5264 Bud Ln · New Baltimore, MI 48064

$55,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Fair condition $53/sqft · 194% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seeking affordable living within an active, all-age community? Anchor Bay in Casco, Michigan, is your ideal destination. Enjoy convenient access to local recreation, shopping, and entertainment in this picturesque community. Anchor Bay boasts a wealth of amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, two playgrounds, volleyball & basketball court, and fitness center ensuring residents have ample opportunities for recreation and relaxation right at their doorstep.

Key facts

• Volleyball court
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• VOLLEYBALL COURT
• BASKETBALL COURT
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 2.5% in New Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in MI, #597 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Anchor Bay School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $52,546 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.95%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $19,000
• List price: $55,900
• Delta: 194.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5238 Bud Ln	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	3mo	$19,000	$19	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $28,306
• Equity at exit: $8,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $72,812
• Equity at exit: $4,833

Cash invested: $15,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48064

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $489

Max offer price $55,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $606	+0% $586	+5% $567	+10% $548
Rent	-10% $489	-5% $538	+0% $586	+5% $635	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $601	base $586	+0.5pp $572	+1.0pp $557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,975
• Closing costs: $1,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5407 Aloha Ln Casco, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1152	$1,599	$1.39	0d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $55,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $55,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $55,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $55,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-04-08
    listed $55,900 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Seeking affordable living within an active, all-age community? Anchor Bay in Casco, Michigan, is your ideal destination. Enjoy convenient access to local recreation, shopping, and entertainment in this picturesque community. Anchor Bay boasts a wealth of amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, two playgrounds, volleyball & basketball court, and fitness center ensuring residents have ample opportunities for recreation and relaxation right at their doorstep.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,131
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$1,626
• Taxable income: $6,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,568
• After-tax cash flow: $5,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home has average exterior and interior conditions, with minor repairs needed. Painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Painting — Slight discoloration on exterior
• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Painting · Slight discoloration on exterior	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchor Bay School District
• NCES district ID: 2602790
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,173
• Composite: 43.85/100
• National rank: #2925
• State rank: #91 of 540 in MI

Livability — New Baltimore

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,996

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 11% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.97%
• Current HPI: 232.1357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $55,900 Zillow