5209 Capitol Ave · Abilene, TX 79603

$71,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1959 6,882 sqft lot $48/sqft · 49% below area Est $139k · 49% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,482 square feet of living space and endless possibilities for customization. Situated in the Holiday Hills neighborhood, it's a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create a home tailored to their style.

Key facts

• 6,882 sq ft lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Holiday Hills; Possession: Negotiable; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: Sold/listed for cash terms (listing indicates Cash as listing terms)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No carport spaces; No covered parking spaces; Other parking type
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1959
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (about 0.158 acre); Asphalt driveway or paving

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances reported
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) approximately 12 x 12; Bedroom (level 1) approximately 11 x 11; Bedroom (level 1) approximately 10 x 10
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Two living areas; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry or utility appliances reported

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $71k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $71k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 6.8% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.2%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,445/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 662% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $491 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,870 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.24%
• DSCR: 4.66
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,568
• List price: $71,000
• Delta: -48.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
858 N San Jose Dr	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,508 (+2%)	4mo	$114,900	$76	70
5301 North 10th St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-14%)	0mo	$203,000	$160	67
5517 Congress Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,298 (-12%)	0mo	$79,999	$62	62
5501 N 10th St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	3mo	$203,000	$159	61
5449 N 10th St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	4mo	$203,000	$159	60
5509 N 10th St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	3mo	$203,000	$159	60
5457 N 10th St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-14%)	3mo	$203,000	$160	59
5433 N 10th St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-14%)	8mo	$199,900	$157	57
5517 N 10th	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	6mo	$199,999	$156	57
5441 N 10th St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-14%)	8mo	$199,900	$157	56
5525 N 10th	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-14%)	7mo	$199,900	$157	55
5208 Aztec Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-12%)	0mo	$189,000	$145	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $88,274
• Equity at exit: $10,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.6%
• Equity multiple: 13.46×
• Total profit: $247,765
• Equity at exit: $6,139

Cash invested: $19,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79603

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 40.2%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$372
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,011/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $721

Max offer price $71,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,403	-5% $1,382	+0% $1,362	+5% $1,342	+10% $1,322
Rent	-10% $1,169	-5% $1,266	+0% $1,362	+5% $1,459	+10% $1,556
Rate	-1.0pp $1,398	-0.5pp $1,380	base $1,362	+0.5pp $1,344	+1.0pp $1,325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,750
• Closing costs: $2,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5441 N 10th St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,500	$1.97	15d	1	0.32mi
841 S San Jose Dr Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	1122	$3,000	$2.67	22d	1	1.26mi
728 Redbird Ln Abilene, TX	2.0	1.5	994	$1,695	$1.71	15d	1	1.36mi
1470 Beechwood Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1799	$4,500	$2.50	45d	1	1.44mi
234 Clyde St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	998	$1,995	$2.00	15d	1	1.46mi
5348 Benbrook St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$2,100	$1.80	46d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $71,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $71,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $71,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $71,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $71,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $71,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $71,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $71,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $71,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $71,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $71,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 269-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $71,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $73,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $73,000 Active 28 DOM
19. 2026-05-02
    listed $75,000 Active 12-char remark
20. 2021-11-01
    soldstatus
21. 2001-09-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,977
• − Property taxes: −$2,011
• − Insurance: −$355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − Depreciation: −$2,065
• Taxable income: $16,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,898
• After-tax cash flow: $12,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,548
• Household income: $53,513
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 40% Two or more races 24% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.84%
• Current HPI: 184.8875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.19%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $71,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $73,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2021-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,011 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.