812 Flores · Devine, TX 78016

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,007 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1991 7,840 sqft lot ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 180 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 2.1% in Devine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#954 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Devine ISD (town): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #420 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Devine Intermediate School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 432 students, 61% FRL); Devine H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 577 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.83%
• DSCR: 4.42
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,387
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1742 County Road 777	0.36mi	2/1.0	864 (-14%)	3mo	$295,000	$341	57
402 S Teel	0.50mi	1/1.0 (-1)	888 (-12%)	21mo	$40,000	$45	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $39,250
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.32×
• Total profit: $93,230
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78016

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,372/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $431

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $740	-5% $728	+0% $717	+5% $706	+10% $694
Rent	-10% $611	-5% $664	+0% $717	+5% $770	+10% $823
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $727	base $717	+0.5pp $707	+1.0pp $696

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Lc Martin Dr Devine, TX	2.0	1.0	862	$1,339	$1.55	44d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-10-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-25
   historical Active Option
3. 2025-09-04
   price $40,000
4. 2025-06-14
   price $50,000
5. 2025-04-30
   listed $60,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,372
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,045
• After-tax cash flow: $6,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Devine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816950
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,550
• Composite: 34.0/100
• National rank: #5318
• State rank: #420 of 826 in TX

Livability — Devine

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #954
• US rank: #16978

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Devine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,302

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 44% Two or more races 24% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.45%
• Current HPI: 222.0587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-28 Pending — LERA
• 2025-09-25 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $40,000 LERA
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $50,000 LERA
• 2025-04-30 Listed $60,000 LERA

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,372 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.