40 Lookout Ln · Kinsey, AL 36303

$137,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sit on the covered front porch and watch cars go by. Store your boat in the two car detached garage or use it for your shop. Enjoy fruit and berries from the fenced back yard.

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Fenced backyard
• Room for gardening

Tags

• PEACEFUL COUNTRY PROPERTY
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• CORNER LOT
• COUNTY MAINTAINED ROAD
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#165 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Houston County (rural): math 25% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #38 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $138k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,929 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.11%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,867
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,239
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36303

• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $137,999

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $212	+0% $164	+5% $117	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $53	-5% $109	+0% $164	+5% $220	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $200	base $164	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $137,999 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,999 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,999 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,999 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,999 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,999 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,999 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $137,999 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,999 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $137,999 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 671-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $137,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 0101770
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,530
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6092
• State rank: #38 of 129 in AL

Livability — Kinsey

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #14540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kinsey, AL
• County: Houston County · 47,783 people
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 30,173
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 41% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.35%
• Current HPI: 182.6482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+137.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $137,999 FSBO.com
• 2017-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $58,449 Public Records
• 2017-12-22 Sold (MLS) $58,000 SAMLS

Property tax history

+34.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $100 · -11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.