20704 Jaguar Ave · Lakeville, MN 55044

$424,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1992 10,018 sqft lot Est $429k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderfully updated 4 br, 3 bath home in a great neighborhood close to Schools, Parks & Lake Marion. New lights, carpet, paint, appliances, roof, A/C, siding. This home has 3 beds up w/master bath & walk in closet. Nice big kitchen. Home is move in ready!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Stainless appliances
• Generous foyer

Tags

• GENEROUS FOYER
• SPACIOUS SUNNY KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• SOLAR PANELS
• INCREDIBLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated garage with automatic door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas; Electric service by Xcel Energy
• Home design: Residential property; Three-level split; Entry faces Jaguar Ave
• Construction: Block construction; Asphalt pitched roof (older than 8 years); Block foundation
• Exterior features: Composite decking; Deck; Front porch; Stone exterior accents; In-ground sprinkler; Storage shed; Tree coverage (medium); Underground utilities; Publicly maintained paved streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom with private full bath; Three bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One three-quarter bathroom; Primary has a private full bath; Upper level full bath; Basement three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceiling; Natural woodwork; Kitchen window; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Water softener (owned); Finished partial basement with egress window(s); Drain tile in basement; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookup available; Gas water heater; Utility room on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-398/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $419k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $342k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeville Public School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 301 in MN (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary (math 64% / reading 73%, grade B+, #91 of 857 statewide, top 11%, 521 students, 21% FRL); Mcguire Middle (math 52% / reading 59%, grade B-, #43 of 258 statewide, top 17%, 865 students, 20% FRL); Lakeville South High (math 51% / reading 67%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,906 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $425k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $342,202 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $429,240
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20563 Jasmine Path	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,138 (+5%)	22mo	$450,000	$210	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-69,724
• Equity at exit: $63,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-58,296
• Equity at exit: $36,738

Cash invested: $118,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,422 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,228
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,976/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,464

Max offer price $419,035

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $87	+0% $-33	+5% $-153	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-304	-5% $-168	+0% $-33	+5% $102	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $75	base $-33	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,225
• Closing costs: $12,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20427 Jupiter Way Lakeville, MN	4.0	4.0	2876	$3,700	$1.29	45d	1	0.59mi
20457 Keystone Ave Lakeville, MN	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	2247	$4,100	$1.82	0d	49	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 688-char remark
2. 2026-05-31
   listed $424,900 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,976 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,367 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$391/yr (+$33/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,801
• − Property taxes: −$3,976
• − Insurance: −$2,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,285
• − Management: −$3,285
• − Depreciation: −$12,361
• Taxable loss: −$7,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,864
• After-tax cash flow: $1,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeville Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2717780
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $96,899
• Composite: 56.36/100
• National rank: #1164
• State rank: #21 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+286.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Listed $424,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-11 Sold (MLS) $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-16 Listed $229,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 1992-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $109,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,976 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.